The Arakan Army (AA) is on the cusp of capturing the strategic western frontier region of Rakhine State in Myanmar, a development that could redefine the country’s civil war and regional geopolitics.
The rebel group has pledged to capture the remainder of Rakhine State, including the capital Sittwe, as well as a key Indian port project, and Kyaukphyu, home to oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The AA’s advances have been marked by intense fighting, with the Myanmar military turning to air strikes – a tactic used nationwide since the generals seized power in 2021.
According to the United League of Arakan (ULA), the AA’s political wing, air raids killed 402 civilians between late 2023 and mid-2025, including 96 children. Another 26 civilians died this year from artillery, landmines or extrajudicial killings.
The humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State has deepened, with the United Nations estimating that more than two million people face the risk of starvation.
The World Food Programme has warned that 57 percent of families in central Rakhine cannot meet basic food needs – up from 33 percent in December. Thousands of civilians are hemmed in the encircled Sittwe, which is now accessible only by sea and air.
Residents describe skyrocketing prices, with pork that once cost $2 now exceeding $13. Local media have reported on desperate people taking their own lives, families turning to begging, sex work increasing, and daytime thefts as law and order collapses. “They’re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight. They even take the furniture,” one resident who recently left by plane said.
The AA’s fight against Myanmar’s military government for self-determination unfolds amid a deepening humanitarian crisis and growing reports of serious abuses by the armed group against Muslim-majority Rohingya in Rakhine.
The ULA says “Muslim residents” in its areas of control in Rakhine “are experiencing better lives compared to any other period in recent history”.
However, reports accuse the AA of abuses against Rohingya civilians, including an alleged massacre of 600 people last year – allegations the AA denies.
The conflict has also drawn in regional powers, with India and China having stakes in Rakhine through the Kaladan transport project and the Belt and Road Initiative, respectively.
Analysts say taking control of the port, road and river network could allow the AA to tax Indian trade, boosting its finances while also undermining the Myanmar military’s ties with New Delhi.
“If the AA does succeed in capturing Rakhine’s coastal ports, the armed group could feasibly control transport and trade gateways vital to both China and India, which would create leverage that no other armed participant in the Myanmar civil war holds,” said Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst with defence publication Janes.
The AA’s advances have significant implications for the region, with the potential to reshape the balance of power in Myanmar and beyond.
As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen how the AA’s territorial ambitions will play out, and what the consequences will be for the people of Rakhine State.