The relationship between India and China has shown signs of warming, with both countries taking steps to improve ties and reduce tensions along their disputed border.
This development comes as the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, has been imposing tariffs on Indian goods, citing concerns over trade imbalances.
The tariffs have led to a significant shift in India’s foreign policy, with New Delhi seeking to diversify its relationships and reduce its dependence on the US market.
In recent weeks, India and China have announced several confidence-building measures, including the resumption of direct flights, easier visa processes, and border trade facilitation.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi earlier this week marked a significant step towards improving ties, with both sides agreeing to explore an “early harvest” settlement of parts of their long-contested border.
This move is seen as a key step towards reducing tensions and improving relations between the two nations.
According to Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, the efforts to minimize tensions and differences between India and China have been underway for some time.
“However, Trump’s policies on tariffs and [favourable approach towards New Delhi’s rival] Pakistan have left India with little choice but to reduce the number of adversaries, including China,” she said.
The US has twice hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, this year, including for an unprecedented White House meeting with Trump.
The warming of India-China ties could have significant implications for the US-led Quad grouping, which includes Japan and Australia.
The Quad has been a key component of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at balancing China’s growing influence in the region.
However, with India and China seeking to improve relations, the Quad’s dynamics could be altered, potentially undermining its sense of purpose.
“The China-India rapprochement creates greater space for Asia-led trade blocs that are independent from Washington,” said Ivan Lidarev, a visiting research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies.
This development could lead to increased bilateral trade between India and China, potentially reducing India’s reliance on the US market.
However, experts caution that the improvement in India-China relations may not necessarily lead to a complete transformation of their ties.
“A thaw in relations may help normalise bilateral ties, but it is unlikely to transform them, as competition and conflict will persist,” Hashmi said.
The global trade dependence on China will likely continue, as countries rush to normalize economic relations with Beijing amid Trump’s tariffs.
The shifting geopolitical landscape has significant implications for the Quad grouping, with some experts suggesting that its strategic relevance will remain intact, especially over shared goals such as resilient supply chains, emerging technologies, climate cooperation, and maritime security.
However, others argue that the grouping’s dynamics will be complicated by the warming of India-China ties, potentially undermining mutual trust and the sense of purpose within the Quad.
As the region navigates these complex dynamics, one thing is clear: the Asia Pacific is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by shifting geopolitical winds and the emergence of new trade blocs.
The question remains whether the US will adapt to these changes or continue to pursue its current approach, potentially leading to further realignments in the region.