A new report has revealed that Nigeria’s conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme, relaunched in October 2023 to cushion the impact of petrol subsidy removal, has reached only 36 percent of its targeted households, leaving millions of vulnerable Nigerians without support.
The report, published mid-year by PwC, shows that out of the 15 million households targeted for federal cash transfer programme, just 5.6 million received at least one tranche of payment.
Worryingly, the number of beneficiaries reduced significantly over time: 2.4 million households received a second payment, while fewer than 1.3 million households accessed a third payment after undergoing biometric verification.
The CCT programme was reintroduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu as part of palliative measures following the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate.
Its core objective is to directly support Nigeria’s most vulnerable families, particularly those living below the poverty line.
However, PwC’s findings suggest that the scheme has struggled with delays, verification bottlenecks, and limited reach.
Analysts note that while the government has invested heavily in the programme, structural challenges continue to hinder its effectiveness.
“The conditional cash transfer remains one of the government’s strongest tools for poverty alleviation, but the pace of distribution has not matched the urgency of Nigeria’s economic realities,” the report observed.
To enhance transparency and reduce fraud, the government made National Identity Number (NIN) and Bank Verification Number (BVN) registration compulsory for households seeking support.
At least one adult per household must be biometrically verified before receiving cash.
While this policy is expected to strengthen accountability, it has also slowed down disbursements, especially in rural areas where access to NIN registration centers is limited.
The PwC report suggests that if properly implemented, the NIN-based verification system could improve targeting and ensure that the most vulnerable households, rather than politically connected individuals, benefit from the scheme.
The World Bank approved an $800 million loan to fund the cash transfer programme.
As of April 2025, $530 million had already been disbursed to Nigeria.
Despite this financial support, only about 37 percent of households have received aid, according to the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update titled Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth.
The global lender urged the government to expand coverage and accelerate disbursement, stressing that “urgent efforts must be made to reach the poorest and most economically at-risk households.”
The report also highlighted Nigeria’s broader economic environment.
Oil prices dropped from $79.21 to $71.21 per barrel in the first half of 2025, partly due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainty.
While lower oil prices squeeze government revenue, Nigeria remains heavily reliant on crude exports, with the 2025 budget benchmark pegged at $75 per barrel.
PwC projected that Nigeria’s GDP will grow by 3.4 percent in 2025, supported by improvements in oil production and stronger performance in ICT, finance, and real estate sectors.
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to moderate to 21.46 percent, creating a potential pathway for the Central Bank of Nigeria to begin easing its tight monetary policy stance in the second half of the year.
Experts argue that unless the cash transfer programme is scaled up effectively, millions of Nigerians facing rising food costs, unemployment, and currency depreciation may continue to fall deeper into poverty.
Civil society organisations have also urged the government to strengthen institutional capacity, reduce bureaucratic delays, and embrace public-private partnerships to ensure that social protection schemes deliver real impact.
As the country awaits the next update on disbursements, the spotlight will remain on whether the Tinubu administration can bridge the gap between policy promises and implementation realities, ensuring that no household is left behind.