The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest private oil refining project, has ramped up operations to an impressive 610,000 barrels per day (bpd), edging close to its nameplate capacity of 650,000bpd. This milestone, revealed by energy intelligence agency Argus, signals a transformative shift in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, which has long relied on imports to meet local fuel demand.

Speaking on the Argus podcast “Can the Dangote Refinery Declare Victory Over Doubters?”, Benedict George, Editor of the European Products Report, noted that the plant is now outperforming industry expectations.

“The Dangote refinery has been running this year more reliably and strongly than ever before.

As of June, output stood at 440,000 to 450,000 barrels per day, and this month it has surged to around 610,000 barrels daily.

It is essentially thriving and pushing towards full capacity.”


Beyond achieving near-capacity levels, Dangote officials have hinted at expansion plans.

According to Argus, some refining units are already running above capacity, prompting efforts to “de-bottleneck” and possibly raise production beyond the 650,000bpd design.

Sources suggest that such an upgrade could be completed by year-end.

This surge has redefined Nigeria’s downstream oil market.

The refinery’s aggressive pricing has made it the main price-setter for petrol within Nigeria, undercutting rivals and forcing local trading houses to scramble for survival.

With thousands of newly acquired CNG-powered trucks, the company has also consolidated its dominance in domestic distribution, ensuring efficient supply across the country despite infrastructure bottlenecks.

“The refinery is not just competing; it is setting the pace,” George explained.

“Dangote is rapidly becoming the most dominant market player in Nigeria and increasingly in West Africa.”


The refinery’s rise has had ripple effects far beyond Nigeria. Historically, Europe supplied most of West Africa’s gasoline demand.

But with Dangote’s growing production, Nigerian imports of European fuel fell sharply in mid-2025. Between May and June, volumes halved to just under 250,000 tonnes—the lowest in nearly a decade.

If this trend continues, Nigeria could transition from a net fuel importer to a net exporter as early as this year.

Already, Dangote is supplying cargoes to neighboring West African countries, displacing European traders and reshaping global fuel trade flows.

Some European suppliers have begun redirecting cargoes to East and Southern Africa, underscoring the scale of disruption.


Despite its strong performance, analysts warn that Dangote’s first major maintenance shutdown will test market stability.

The facility’s single crude distillation unit means any extended downtime could trigger fuel shortages and reshape trading patterns across the region.

“Rumors of frequent breakdowns seem overblown, but when the refinery schedules its first turnaround, West African markets will face significant turbulence,” George cautioned.

Additionally, while the refinery has proven resilient, Nigeria’s broader refining landscape remains weak.

State-owned refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri, which briefly resumed operations in late 2024, are offline again.

Modular refineries under construction may ease supply pressure in the future, but their combined capacity is not expected to make a major impact before 2026.


For decades, Nigeria—Africa’s top oil producer—ironically imported most of its refined petroleum products due to moribund state refineries.

The Dangote Refinery’s success marks a turning point, boosting domestic supply, stabilizing fuel prices, and positioning Nigeria as a regional refining hub.

Industry observers agree that the project’s reliability, competitive pricing, and potential expansion signal a long-awaited step toward energy independence.

If sustained, the refinery could save Nigeria billions in fuel import costs annually, strengthen foreign reserves, and create thousands of jobs in logistics, distribution, and allied industries.

As George summed it up: “Skeptics once doubted Dangote could hit its design capacity.

Today, not only is it within touching distance, but expansion is firmly on the horizon.

This is a game-changer, not just for Nigeria, but for the entire West African fuel market.”