China’s attempt to broker peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban is being put to the test as tensions between the two nations continue to simmer.
The recent trilateral meeting in Kabul between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar, and Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi highlights Beijing’s efforts to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan while ensuring the security of its interests in the region.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been at odds since the Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021. Islamabad accuses the Taliban of providing safe haven to groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has been carrying out cross-border attacks.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, accuses Pakistan of human rights violations, particularly in the treatment of Afghan refugees. China, with its significant investments in Pakistan through the CPEC, is keen to see stability in the region.
China has positioned itself as a mediator, driven largely by its interests in the CPEC, a $62 billion infrastructure project.
A senior Pakistani diplomat noted that China places a premium on neighborhood diplomacy and views a peaceful neighborhood as essential for the success of its larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.
“China has attached high importance to stability and security to pursue and expand its larger BRI project, so expansion of westward connectivity and development can only succeed when, among others, these two countries are stabilized,” the diplomat said.
Despite China’s efforts, analysts believe that Beijing’s influence over both Pakistan and Afghanistan remains untested.
Stella Hong Zhang, assistant professor at Indiana University Bloomington, questioned the extent to which Beijing is convinced about investing in either Afghanistan or Pakistan, given the substantial risks involved.
“China might promise investments, but… it is uncertain whether officials in the two nations will be able to convince China’s state-owned enterprises and banks to invest in further projects in both countries, given CPEC’s disappointing track record and the substantial risks in both countries,” she said.
The security situation in Pakistan has deteriorated, with a notable increase in terrorist activities. According to the Global Terrorism Index, Pakistan is among the countries most impacted by terrorism.
China has voiced concerns over groups like the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which allegedly uses Afghan territory to launch attacks against China.
Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher, emphasized the need for improvement in Pakistan’s internal security, stating that “this concern is what guides Beijing’s push for improvement in Pak-Afghan bilateral ties.”
While China can play a significant role in mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan, it remains uncertain whether Beijing will act as a guarantor.
The senior Pakistani diplomat expressed skepticism, saying, “As for guarantorship, I’m not sure whether China is willing or keen to do so. It certainly can play that role because of a high degree of trust it enjoys, but whether it would do so or not remains to be seen.”
In conclusion, China’s efforts to bring Pakistan and Afghanistan together are driven by its interests in the CPEC and regional stability. However, the complexity of the situation and the risks involved make it uncertain whether Beijing’s efforts will yield the desired results.