Nigeria’s ambition to quadruple its economy to $1 trillion by 2030 faces significant headwinds, according to investment research and advisory firm Afrinvest. The firm cited rising inflation, persistent power sector challenges, and low oil production as major obstacles to achieving President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious economic projections.
At the recent BRICS summit in Brazil, President Tinubu declared that Nigeria’s real GDP growth would hit 7.0 percent by 2027, aiming for a fourfold increase from the current $251 billion to $1 trillion by 2030.
The projection followed the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP and the rollout of a series of reforms since mid-2023, aimed at boosting revenue and restoring macroeconomic stability.
Afrinvest highlighted that, based on rebased figures, Nigeria’s nominal GDP for 2024 stood at N372.8 trillion, a 34.4 percent improvement from the pre-rebased figure of N277.5 trillion.
In real terms, GDP was estimated at N217.8 trillion. However, sharp naira depreciation since mid-2023 means that the dollar equivalent remained $251 billion, roughly 50 percent lower than levels before the current administration initiated its reforms.
Despite these gains, the National Bureau of Statistics reported GDP growth of just 3.13 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, far below the rate needed to meet the $1 trillion target.
Similarly, projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank place Nigeria’s growth at 3.4–3.6 percent in 2025, rising marginally to 3.8 percent by 2026–2027.
Afrinvest acknowledged that Tinubu’s administration had pursued bold reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, liberalization of the foreign exchange market, and revenue mobilization drives.
The Central Bank of Nigeria, under Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, maintained tight monetary policy measures to combat inflation while addressing FX backlogs to restore market confidence.
These reforms have created growth opportunities, particularly in the services sector, with ICT, financial services, and transport leading the recovery.
Revenue mobilization improved significantly, with gross and net revenues rising 126.5 percent and 124.4 percent in 2024 to N34.7 trillion and N28.6 trillion, respectively.
However, Afrinvest warned that structural constraints continue to limit Nigeria’s economic potential.
Inflation, especially in food prices, remains high, eroding household purchasing power.
The power sector struggles with liquidity shortfalls, inconsistent tariffs, and supplier arrears.
Oil production is hampered by theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment.
“For Nigeria to achieve a 7 percent GDP growth by 2027 and reach $1 trillion by 2030, nominal GDP must surpass $800 billion by end-2026, implying at least 40 percent nominal growth in 2025 and 2026,” Afrinvest noted.
“Alternatively, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate would need to strengthen to above N500/$ from 2027 to make the target feasible.”
The firm urged the government to accelerate multi-sector reforms, including boosting oil output to at least 2 million barrels per day, implementing cost-reflective electricity tariffs alongside targeted subsidies, ensuring FX stability, enforcing tax reforms, and strengthening food security through agricultural initiatives and safety nets.
Afrinvest’s report underscores that while Nigeria has laid a foundation for growth through strategic reforms, achieving a $1 trillion economy remains a challenging task requiring coordinated policy action, investment in critical sectors, and macroeconomic stability.
Without these interventions, the ambitious target may remain aspirational rather than achievable.