The upcoming talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump at the White House, Washington DC, is expected to be more crucial for Ukraine’s future than the recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.
European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, will join Zelenskyy to ensure Ukraine’s direct involvement in any peace deal discussions and to push for “cast-iron” security guarantees.
The presence of these leaders is a strategic move to present a united front and prevent Trump from being swayed by his rapport with Putin.
Trump’s stance on Ukraine’s NATO membership bid has been clear: “No going into NATO by Ukraine,” he said, as Zelenskyy prepares for the White House talks.
Starmer’s diplomatic skills will be put to the test, given Trump’s inclination to listen to him. In fact, Trump is set to visit the UK on a state visit in a month, which might further influence his stance on Ukraine.
The proposed deal between the US and Russia appears to involve trading some Ukrainian land for security guarantees, but significant questions remain unanswered.
Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Ukraine’s constitution forbids giving up land, while Putin demands control over Donbas and Crimea.
However, as Kaja Kallas, Europe’s top diplomat and former Estonian PM, noted, “victory for Ukraine in this war does not have to be exclusively about reconquering occupied land.” Instead, obtaining robust security guarantees could safeguard Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
The stakes are high, with European leaders emphasizing that international borders cannot be changed by force.
Military experts warn that even if a peace deal is reached, Putin is likely to reconstitute his army and build more weapons, potentially leading to further aggression.
The Coalition of the Willing, initially envisioned as a significant military presence, has been scaled back to focus on safeguarding skies and seas and rebuilding Ukraine’s army.
Key Considerations:
- Security Guarantees: The type of security guarantees Ukraine can obtain will be crucial in determining the country’s future safety and sovereignty.
- Land Trade-Offs: The potential trade of Ukrainian land for security guarantees raises questions about the long-term implications for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
- European Unity: The united front presented by European leaders will be vital in influencing Trump’s stance on Ukraine and ensuring a cohesive approach to the conflict.
- Future Aggression: Despite any peace deal, the likelihood of Putin’s future aggression remains a significant concern, with military experts warning of potential renewed attacks.
