Nigeria has maintained crude oil production above its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for the second straight month, signaling renewed momentum in the country’s upstream oil sector.
According to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for July 2025, Nigeria produced an average of 1.507 million barrels per day (mbpd), surpassing its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
This marks a slight but significant increase of 7,000 barrels per day (bpd) above the approved limit and 2,000 bpd higher than June’s average of 1.505 mbpd.
Data reviewed by our correspondent, show that this is the third time in 2025 Nigeria’s production has met or exceeded OPEC quotas — January, June, and July. January recorded the year’s peak at 1.54 mbpd, before output slipped in subsequent months:
February: 1.46 mbpd
March: 1.40 mbpd
April: 1.48 mbpd
May: 1.45 mbpd
Industry analysts attribute the sharp declines earlier in the year to operational bottlenecks, crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and delayed investment in upstream projects.
However, the recent rebound is being credited to government-backed interventions and private sector collaboration.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, has emphasized that the government’s “Project One Million Barrels Initiative”, launched in 2024, is now yielding tangible results.
Komolafe explained that the initiative focuses on:
Reactivating dormant oil fields
Fast-tracking regulatory approvals
Attracting fresh investments in marginal fields
Enhancing security along vital crude transportation corridors
According to him, Nigeria has already succeeded in raising oil and condensate production from 1.4 mbpd in 2024 to between 1.7 mbpd and 1.83 mbpd in 2025, depending on reconciliation of figures.
“With a clear target of reaching 2.5 mbpd by 2026, we are now witnessing consistent progress.
The additional 300,000 bpd increase recorded in recent months confirms the effectiveness of these reforms,” Komolafe said.
Oil remains Nigeria’s largest foreign exchange earner, accounting for over 70% of government revenues.
Exceeding OPEC quotas, although diplomatically sensitive, offers Nigeria the opportunity to bolster fiscal inflows, reduce pressure on external reserves, and stabilise the naira.
However, energy economists warn that maintaining output above OPEC ceilings could trigger compliance concerns within the cartel.
OPEC has been implementing production cuts to balance global supply and support crude prices amid market volatility.
Nigeria’s sustained excess could draw pressure from other members who demand strict adherence to quotas.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has averaged $78–$82 per barrel in recent weeks, providing a revenue cushion for oil-dependent economies like Nigeria.
Analysts suggest that if Nigeria sustains production above quota levels while prices remain stable, the country could significantly improve its fiscal space to fund infrastructure, social welfare, and debt servicing obligations.
Yet, experts caution that without long-term investments in refining capacity, Nigeria will continue to face challenges in its downstream sector, including dependence on fuel imports and exposure to price shocks.
The Federal Government has reiterated its ambition of not only meeting but exceeding production benchmarks, with an ultimate goal of hitting 2.5 mbpd by 2026.
Achieving this requires a sustained crackdown on oil theft, improved security in the Niger Delta, and investor-friendly policies under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
For now, Nigeria’s back-to-back performance above OPEC quota is being hailed as a turning point for Africa’s largest crude producer, signaling renewed confidence in its ability to reclaim lost ground in the global oil market.