The relationship between the United States and India has hit a new low, with President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Indian imports sparking widespread criticism in New Delhi. The tariffs, which are among the highest on any country’s products, have triggered a serious rupture in US-India relations, according to Milan Vaishnav, the director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The tariff moves have triggered the most serious rupture in the US-India relations in decades,” Vaishnav said.
The tariffs have been imposed on Indian imports, including purchases of Russian oil, which the Biden administration had encouraged India to do to keep global crude prices under control. China, which buys even more Russian oil than India, has received a reprieve from high US tariffs for now, as Washington negotiates a trade deal with Beijing. This contrast has prompted questions over whether Trump’s approach towards China and traditional friends like India marks a broader shift away from the US pivot to Asia.
The impact of the tariffs on US-India relations has been significant. India has accused the US of hypocrisy, pointing out that it still trades with Russia and that Washington had previously wanted New Delhi to buy Russian crude. “One thing is clear: Trust in the United States has eroded sharply in recent days, casting a long shadow over the bilateral relationship,” Vaishnav told Al Jazeera. Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the crisis in the relationship also reflects a dramatic turn in the personal equation between Modi and Trump. “The state of ties is a result of a clash of personalities between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi,” Donthi said.
The US-India relationship has been built on a foundation of shared strategic interests, including a desire to balance China’s rise. However, Trump’s unpredictable presidency has disrupted this approach, say experts. “There is currently a period of churn and uncertainty, after which clarity will emerge,” Donthi said. “There might be some cautious rebalancing in the short term from the Asian powers, who will wait for more clarity.”
India has been engaged in hectic diplomacy, with its national security adviser, Ajit Doval, visiting Moscow earlier this month and meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is scheduled to travel to the Russian capital later this month. Additionally, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit New Delhi in August. India has also indicated that it is open to considering the revival of a Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral mechanism, after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proposed the platform’s resurrection.
The RIC troika would ultimately be “more symbolic than substantive”, according to Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation. “That’s because one of the sides of that triangle is quite small and fragile: India-China ties,” Kugelman said. While there have been “notable easing of tensions” in recent months, “India and China remain strategic competitors,” he added.
The future of US-India relations remains uncertain, with many analysts predicting a continued downturn in ties. “The best outcome for India immediately is the Russians and Ukrainians agree to a ceasefire,” Kugelman said, “because at the end of the day, Trump is pressuring India as a means of pressuring Russia.” Even if the conflict in Ukraine were to subside, it is unclear whether the US-India relationship would return to its previous level of warmth and cooperation. “The cooperation in other areas will continue, perhaps with less open enthusiasm than had been the case in recent years,” said Jon Danilowicz, a retired diplomat who worked in the US State Department.
The Trump tariffs could also have domestic benefits for Modi, bolstering his image as a defender of national pride. “Trump’s hardball tactics could bolster Modi’s domestic standing,” Vaishnav said. “They highlight Washington’s unreliability, allowing Modi to frame himself as standing firm in the face of US pressure.” Ultimately, the future of US-India relations will depend on a range of factors, including the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine and the trajectory of Trump’s presidency.