The UK economy has demonstrated resilience, exceeding analyst forecasts with a 0.3% growth in the second quarter. However, the growth slowed from the first quarter’s 0.7% pace, largely due to the impact of US tariffs and a higher UK business tax. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), services and construction drove growth, offsetting a drop in production. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves stated: “Today’s economic figures are positive with a strong start to the year and continued growth in the second quarter. But there is more to do to deliver an economy that works for working people.”
The ONS data revealed that services, including computer programming, health, and vehicle leasing, led the growth. Construction also increased, while production fell slightly. Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, noted, “Growth was led by services, with computer programming, health and vehicle leasing growing.” The growth in services was a key driver of the UK’s economic performance, highlighting the sector’s importance to the country’s economy.
However, economists warn that the positive momentum may not continue into the third quarter. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “The weak global economy will remain a drag on UK GDP growth for a while yet. The full drag on business investment from April’s tax rises has yet to be felt.” The UK’s unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.7% in the second quarter, partly due to the increased business tax.
The Bank of England recently cut its key interest rate by a quarter point to 4%, citing threats to growth from US tariffs. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the monetary policy committee “remains focused on squeezing out any existing or emerging persistent inflationary pressures, to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target in the medium term.” Economists are cautious about the UK’s economic prospects, with some predicting a slowdown in growth.
George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, said: “After a strong start to the year, the UK economy took a breather in the second quarter. Still, hopes of a sharp rebound are likely to be dashed.” The British pound remained flat against the dollar, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that while the latest data is positive, “there is more to do to deliver an economy that works for working people.” The UK’s economic performance will continue to be closely watched, with many expecting a challenging period ahead.