China’s recent deployment of its two aircraft carriers into the Pacific Ocean has sent a strong signal to the United States and other regional players. The simultaneous deployment of the Liaoning and Shandong carriers east of the Philippines is a “historic” moment, according to maritime expert and former US Air Force Colonel Ray Powell. “No nation except the US has operated dual carrier groups at such distances since [World War II],” Powell said. “While it will take years for China’s still-nascent carrier capabilities to approach that of America’s, this wasn’t just a training exercise – it was China demonstrating it can now contest and even deny US access to crucial sea lanes.”
The exercise by the aircraft carriers was described as a “far-sea combat-oriented training” by China’s state-run news agency Xinhua. The Global Times, a state-affiliated newspaper, reported that China is soon poised to enter the “three-aircraft-carrier era”, when its Fujian carrier enters service later this year. China currently has two operational aircraft carriers, and the Fujian is undergoing sea trials.
While China still lags behind the US in terms of naval capabilities, the gap is closing rapidly. Powell said that China fully intends to close the gaps and is applying tremendous resources toward that end. “With its rapidly improving technical prowess and vastly superior shipbuilding capacity, it has demonstrated its potential to get there,” he said. China’s focus is not directed towards competing with the US globally, but rather on changing the balance of power and convincing its allies and adversaries to accept China’s dominance within its chosen sphere of influence in East Asia.
East Asia is a “home game” for China, where it can augment its small carrier force through its far larger land-based air and rocket forces. “East Asia is a place where [China] can augment its small carrier force through its far larger land-based air and rocket forces – including so-called [aircraft] ‘carrier killer’ missile systems that can strike targets up to 4,000km [2,485 miles] away,” Powell said.
The Philippines has been engaging in increasingly frequent high seas confrontations with the Chinese coastguard, but it is Japan that is watching China’s naval build-up with concern. Japan’s Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said in June that Beijing apparently aims “to advance its operational capability of the distant sea and airspace”. With the US increasingly perceived as becoming more inward-looking under President Donald Trump, Japan is considered a growing force in the contested maritime terrain in the Asia Pacific region.
Japan’s naval capacity is growing steadily, not just in support of the US alliance but in quiet preparation for a more uncertain future. “Japan’s naval capacity is growing steadily, not just in support of the US alliance but in quiet preparation for a more uncertain future – perhaps even one in which America withdraws from the Pacific,” said Mike Burke, lecturer at Tokyo-based Meiji University.
Japan’s defence spending and related costs are expected to total 9.9 trillion yen (about $67bn) for fiscal year 2025, equivalent to 1.8 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP). The government has committed to raising spending on defence to 2 percent of GDP by 2027. “Japan has been strengthening its defence capabilities to the point at which Japan can take the primary responsibility for dealing with invasions against Japan, and disrupt and defeat such threats while obtaining the support of its [US] ally and other security partners,” said Noriyuki Shikata, Japan’s ambassador to Malaysia.
The security situation in the Asia Pacific region is complex and uncertain. Ralph Cossa, chairman of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum research institute, said that the challenge to freedom of navigation is a global one. “I don’t think anyone wants a direct conflict or is looking to start a fight,” Cossa said. “But I worry that Chinese assertiveness could result in an accident that it would prove difficult for either side to walk away or back down from.”
Do Thanh Hai, deputy director-general at Vietnam’s East Sea Institute Diplomatic Academy, said that no one will emerge unscathed from an incident in the disputed region. “Any disruption in the South China Sea will affect all,” he said. The situation in the South China Sea remains tense, with China claiming almost all of the sea and other countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, claiming parts of it.
In conclusion, China’s deployment of its aircraft carriers into the Pacific Ocean is a significant development that signals its ability to contest US power in the region. The situation in the Asia Pacific region is complex and uncertain, with multiple countries vying for influence and control. The US, China, and other regional players will need to navigate this complex situation carefully to avoid conflict and maintain stability in the region.