The Federal Government of Nigeria generated an impressive ₦5.21 trillion from crude oil, gas, and associated petroleum activities in the first six months of 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The figure represents 42.7% of the record ₦12.2 trillion earned in the whole of 2024 and about 34.7% of the ₦15 trillion revenue target set for the commission this year to support the 2025 national budget.
According to NUPRC’s mid-year report presented at the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC), the earnings were derived from:
Royalty payments from Joint Venture (JV) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) – ₦1.04 trillion.
Project Gazelle receipts – ₦315.93 billion, mainly from January and March inflows.
Gas sales and flared gas penalties from oil companies.
Outstanding receivables from crude lifting contracts.
The commission also recovered $459,226 from unpaid obligations, part of a much larger $1.436 billion debt owed to the Federation, leaving an outstanding balance of $1.435 billion.
NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, said the ₦15 trillion target for 2025 was ambitious but achievable, noting that the agency had already surpassed its 2024 goal by 163%.
“We are not intimidated by the figures. We have defined a strategic approach to achieve the target,” Komolafe said.
However, the commission’s performance so far indicates that without higher oil output or faster payment of arrears, the year-end figure may fall short.
Industry experts have warned that the government risks turning NUPRC into a tax-collection agency rather than a balanced regulator.
Energy policy analyst Dayo Ayoade told our correspondent that while revenue generation is crucial, excessive fiscal pressure could scare away investors.
“If the regulator focuses too much on extracting money from companies, it could kill the goose that lays the golden eggs,” Ayoade said.
Petroleum engineer Bala Zaka echoed similar concerns, blaming years of security challenges, sabotage, and community unrest for declining investments by multinational oil companies. He noted that many have relocated operations to East Africa, leaving indigenous firms that are not aggressively exploring or expanding reserves.
Nigeria’s oil sector remains the largest single contributor to federal revenue, but persistent challenges—ranging from underinvestment to crude theft—continue to limit production capacity.
Without significant policy reforms to:
Improve security in oil-producing areas,
Reduce regulatory bottlenecks, and
Incentivise exploration,
experts fear the country could see stagnating revenues despite high global oil prices.
The NUPRC’s mid-year revenue achievement underscores Nigeria’s reliance on oil as a fiscal lifeline. But as global energy markets shift toward renewables and more competitive African producers emerge, the urgency to diversify income sources and stabilise the petroleum investment climate is greater than ever.