Despite Ukraine’s efforts to recalibrate its strategy for dealing with the Trump administration, Vladimir Putin appears to have emerged as the dominant force in the relationship between the Russian president and Donald Trump. The upcoming summit in Alaska, scheduled for August 15, has been marked by confusion and chaos, with unclear details about the format and potential outcomes.
In the five months since Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met at the Oval Office, Ukrainian officials have worked hard to repair the damage from that meeting, which ended with Zelenskyy being kicked out of the White House. According to a senior official in Kyiv, “We managed to reset communications, to find a new language to work with Trump.”
Trump’s rhetoric also seemed to be shifting, as he termed Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian cities “disgusting” and set a deadline for Putin to stop the war or face new sanctions. However, after envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, Putin was rewarded with an invitation to meet Trump in Alaska, rather than facing debilitating sanctions.
The format of the Alaska summit remains unclear, with conflicting reports about whether Zelenskyy will participate. Putin denied that a three-way meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy was agreed upon, stating that “we are still far from creating the conditions” for such a meeting.
A White House source initially suggested that the meeting with Trump would not proceed if Putin did not agree to meet Zelenskyy, but Trump later denied this, saying he was happy to meet Putin regardless. This back-and-forth has given the impression that Putin is calling the shots in the relationship between Trump and Putin.
The potential deal on the table, as reported, would require the Ukrainian army to unilaterally withdraw from parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for a freeze in other areas. Zelenskyy has stated that “Ukrainians will not give their land to occupiers” and that any deal done without Ukraine would be “stillborn”.
While there is a significant camp in the Ukrainian elite and society that is increasingly ready for a deal that would recognize Russian de facto control in exchange for ending the fighting, the problem lies in the lack of guarantees Ukraine would receive that Russia would not use a ceasefire to regroup and attack again.
Sam Greene, a professor at King’s College London, noted that “As things stand, Ukraine and Europe are on the verge of being confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they feared would emerge back in February.” Zelenskyy and his team have been rallying support among European leaders to put together an alternative plan, but previous experience suggests that Trump may be unwilling or unable to exert real pressure on Putin. Roman Alekhin, a Russian war blogger, warned that “If Putin and Trump reach an agreement directly, Europe will be faced with a fait accompli. Kyiv – even more so”.