In a striking development within Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals that 71.38% of the nation’s Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption for May and June 2025 came from imports—despite the existence of domestic refining capacity, particularly from the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
This trend highlights a growing preference among fuel marketers for imported petrol over locally refined alternatives, raising serious concerns about foreign exchange strain, local industry viability, and the broader energy security framework in Nigeria.
The NMDPRA’s presentation to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) unveiled that of the 3.25 billion litres of PMS consumed in the two-month period, 2.32 billion litres were imported, while only 927 million litres were locally sourced—predominantly from the Dangote Refinery.
June alone saw imports averaging 34.10 million litres per day (1.02 billion litres), while local output was significantly lower at 15.2 million litres per day (455 million litres). Similarly, in May, import volumes stood at 1.297 billion litres compared to local production of just 472 million litres.
This preference for imports comes despite government efforts to promote domestic refining through private sector participation, as exemplified by the Dangote facility.
Independent marketers argue that importation remains more economically viable due to more favorable landing costs abroad. The cost burden associated with sourcing fuel from the Dangote Refinery—including high port charges, marine logistics, and levies from agencies such as the NPA and NIMASA—further discourages patronage.
Chinedu Ukadike, Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), emphasized the risk of a monopoly should Dangote become the sole supplier under a government-backed ban on imports. “We’re not against Dangote’s success, but let him compete on price, not by pushing for protective policies,” Ukadike said.
He warned that restricting imports could threaten the survival of small marketers who rely on competitive sourcing to sustain operations in a volatile pricing environment.
Aliko Dangote, the president of the Dangote Group, has called for refined petroleum products—including PMS, diesel, and aviation fuel—to be included in the Federal Government’s ‘Nigeria First’ policy, which prioritizes local goods over imports.
Speaking at the Global Commodity Insights Conference in Abuja, Dangote argued that continued imports undermine local refining capacity and discourage investment in domestic infrastructure. He cited global examples, such as the U.S. and EU, where governments shield local producers from predatory pricing and foreign competition.
However, energy experts and economists caution that any move to ban imports without competitive local alternatives would have far-reaching economic and legal implications.
Prof. Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, warned that a ban would create monopolistic tendencies and violate international trade principles. “The government must liberalize the sector and ensure multiple refineries are functional before even considering any import restrictions,” he advised.
Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), echoed similar sentiments, stressing that diversity in supply sources is crucial for a stable energy ecosystem.
According to market analyst Jeremiah Olatide of PetroleumPrice.ng, over 80% of importers and private depots currently sell fuel below the ex-depot prices offered by Dangote. This pricing advantage, he explained, is driven by flexible international procurement arrangements that allow for cheaper landing costs.
“As of July, most private depots priced petrol below Dangote’s rate. This dynamic is shifting market power back to importers,” Olatide noted.
With Dangote Refinery set to commence full-scale distribution by August 15, stakeholders anticipate a turbulent reshuffle in the downstream market. Many importers have already increased shipments to mitigate supply shortfalls and maintain pricing leverage during what promises to be a defining period for Nigeria’s energy landscape.
The surge in fuel imports underscores deep-rooted inefficiencies and policy gaps in Nigeria’s downstream sector. As pressure mounts on the Tinubu administration to balance economic protectionism with market liberalization, the future of Nigeria’s energy security and local refining industry hangs in the balance.