The White House has launched an aggressive public relations campaign promoting a narrative of economic strength during the first six months of United States President Donald Trump‘s term, claiming his policies are fueling “America’s golden age”. However, an analysis of economic data reveals a more mixed reality.
Trump’s claims of his policies boosting the US economy suffered a blow when the latest jobs report revealed that the country added a mere 73,000 jobs last month, well below the 115,000 forecasters expected. The only additions were in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 jobs, and the social services sector added 18,000. US employers also cut 62,075 jobs in July, up 29 percent from cuts in the month before, and 140 percent higher than this time last year.
The Department of Labor’s jobs report also showed an economic slowdown, with 7.4 million open jobs in the US, down from 7.7 million a month before. The Labor Department revised down both the May and June jobs reports, significantly changing the picture the White House had previously painted. Trump has since fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs data, alleging that the data had been manipulated to make him look bad.
The administration’s claims about the economy are also being questioned due to the methodology used to calculate job gains. The White House claimed that native-born workers accounted for all job gains since January, which is misleading as it implies that no naturalized citizens or legally present foreign workers gained employment. However, employment among foreign-born workers has declined by over half a million jobs.
Wage growth, an indicator of economic success, has slowed in recent months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages have been outpacing inflation since 2023, after a period of declining real wages following the COVID pandemic. Wage growth ticked up by 0.3 percent in July from a month prior. Compared with this time last year, wage growth is 3.9 percent.
The White House has also been criticized for its claims about inflation. A July 21 White House statement claimed, “Since President Trump took office, core inflation has tracked at just 2.1 percent.” However, the Consumer Price Index report shows that core inflation was 2.9 percent in the most recent report, and overall inflation was at 2.7 percent in June.
Prices have also been rising, with the most recent Consumer Price Index report showing that prices on all goods went up in June by 0.3 percent, which is 2.7 percent higher from this time last year. Grocery prices are up 2.4 percent from this time last year and 0.3 percent from the prior month.
The administration’s claims about GDP growth have also been questioned. While the US economy grew at a 3 percent annualised rate in the second quarter, surpassing expectations, the data beneath the headline showed that private sector investment fell sharply by 15.6 percent and inventories of goods and services declined by 3.2 percent, indicating a slowdown.
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy is also being felt. Companies, including big box retailer Walmart and toymaker Mattel, have announced price hikes as a direct result of the tariffs. Ford raised prices on three Mexico-assembled models due to tariff pressures. Many countries have pivoted their trade policies away from the US, with Brazil and Mexico recently announcing a new trade pact.
The White House continues to defend tariffs, highlighting the increased revenue they bring to the federal government. However, the price of imports for consumers has only risen about 3 percent, and many expect that will change as the import taxes are passed on to consumers.