The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has issued a critical call to the Federal Government to prioritise industrialisation and real sector development, warning that Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may create a misleading impression of growth while concealing deep economic fragility.
This warning follows the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) announcement that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.13% in Q1 2025, up from 2.27% in the same period of 2024, after adopting a rebased GDP structure anchored on 2019 as the new base year.
However, MAN Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, cautioned that while the revised nominal GDP appears larger, it does not reflect a structurally stronger or more productive economy. He stressed that the modest growth, underpinned largely by increased data capture in agriculture, services, and the informal sector, fails to mask the underlying weaknesses in Nigeria’s manufacturing and industrial capacity.
“The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised,” said Ajayi-Kadir during a press briefing in Lagos on Tuesday.
According to MAN, the rebased GDP—now estimated at $243 billion—should not be misconstrued as evidence of meaningful economic progress. Ajayi-Kadir pointed out that real GDP growth has averaged only 1.95% from 2020 to 2024, far below the level required to significantly reduce poverty or improve living standards.
He noted that industry’s share of GDP has declined, dropping from 27.65% under the 2010 base year to just 21.08% in the 2019 base year, signaling a shift toward low-productivity service sectors and away from manufacturing, which is key to national development.
“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of the real sector, especially manufacturing—a sector which should be the engine room of economic transformation,” he added.
Ajayi-Kadir urged the Tinubu administration to treat the GDP rebasing not as a cause for celebration but as a “wake-up call” to adopt deeper structural reforms that support industrial productivity and resilience. He emphasised that manufacturing should be the core of Nigeria’s economic revival strategy.
He also recommended a manufacturing-led growth approach, focused on:
Reliable electricity and energy access for manufacturers
Incentives for local content production
Favorable trade policies
Access to long-term, affordable industrial financing
Rescue plans for ailing sub-sectors like textiles and automobile assembly
“Confidence in the Nigerian economy is not just about GDP size, but about how much of that growth is rooted in productive sectors that can create jobs, reduce imports, and grow exports,” he said.
Experts say while the GDP rebase can improve Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators—such as lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio—it can also mask vulnerabilities unless backed by meaningful structural reforms. Investors may be misled into seeing Nigeria as a fast-growing market, whereas underlying factors—like inflation, infrastructural decay, and policy inconsistency—continue to constrain industrial performance.
Ajayi-Kadir applauded the recent formation of the Industrial Revolution Working Group but stressed that the impact would only be felt if it translates into tangible outcomes such as policy reform, ease of doing business, and targeted support for high-impact industries.
“GDP expansion must go beyond statistics. It must improve livelihoods, create decent jobs, and build a self-sustaining economy. That can only happen through industrialisation,” Ajayi-Kadir concluded.
As the federal government reviews its economic playbook in the wake of the rebased GDP figures, MAN’s cautionary stance presents a timely reminder: size doesn’t equal strength. Without industrial revival and real sector investment, Nigeria’s economic growth risks becoming a façade.