The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its projection of a 3.4 percent real GDP growth rate for Nigeria in 2025, despite the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) rebasing of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
This was disclosed in the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook report titled “Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” released on Tuesday. The retained forecast signals cautious optimism by the Fund, even as Nigeria’s statistical revisions show a broader and more diversified economic base.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s rebased GDP for 2024 stood at N372.8 trillion ($243 billion), a significant increase from N314.02 trillion previously recorded. The rebasing exercise incorporated more sectors from the informal economy, providing a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economic size and structure.
Despite this expansion, Nigeria still trails behind Egypt, South Africa, and Algeria, holding its position as Africa’s fourth-largest economy. The updated figures have not yet restored Nigeria to its former ranking as the continent’s largest economy—a title it held after the last rebasing in 2014.
The IMF’s July projection maintains Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.4%, up slightly from its April 2025 forecast of 3.0%. This upward revision reflects improved domestic reforms, stabilization efforts in the foreign exchange market, and moderate recovery in sectors like agriculture, services, and manufacturing.
Globally, the IMF revised its growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase for 2025 and a 0.1 point rise for 2026 from earlier projections. The report attributes this modest upward trend to easing financial conditions, a softer US dollar, and fiscal expansion in key markets.
“This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs; lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April; an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar; and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions,” the IMF report stated.
While the revised growth projection reflects modest confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory, analysts caution that deeper structural issues remain unresolved. The country continues to grapple with high inflation, rising public debt, and persistent foreign exchange volatility, despite improvements in FX liquidity and recent efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize the naira.
Recent data from the CBN showed sustained capital inflows, largely driven by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), helping to anchor the naira and revive international payment capabilities for school fees and medical bills.
Moreover, the NBS also reported a 3.2% rise in agriculture’s contribution to GDP in Q1 2025, an indication that strategic investments in the sector may be beginning to yield results.
The IMF’s decision to hold its forecast steady post-rebasing suggests that while Nigeria’s economic fundamentals appear stronger on paper, the growth outlook remains fragile. Economists argue that unless reforms deepen across fiscal, monetary, and governance spheres, the country may struggle to translate statistical gains into real developmental impact.
For now, Nigeria’s rebasing provides global investors with a clearer view of its market size, but unlocking long-term growth will require sustained policy coherence and investment-friendly reforms.