Despite Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) jumping to N372.8tn ($243.7bn) in 2024, analysts and economists are raising alarms over persistent productivity challenges and structural inefficiencies threatening long-term growth. While the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) adopted 2019 as the new base year and incorporated emerging sectors such as e-commerce, tourism, and mining, the boost in economic size has not translated into tangible improvements in productivity or livelihoods for most Nigerians.
According to the NBS, the rebasing GDP represented a 38% increase over the previous estimate of N269.29tn based on the 2010 base year. This positions Nigeria as the fourth-largest economy in Africa in 2024. However, experts argue the revised metrics merely paint a cosmetic upgrade of the economy without addressing foundational weaknesses.
Dr. Joseph Ogebe of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group pointed out during a webinar that Nigeria still struggles with low productivity across its most dominant sectors. “Agriculture and services are the largest contributors to GDP, yet they exhibit some of the lowest productivity levels in the economy,” he said. “We are doing less than two in productivity while countries like South Africa and Brazil are doing double that.”
He further warned that economic expansion without increased productivity and export competitiveness would derail the country’s $1tn GDP target by 2030. “If we don’t address FX rate instability and enhance productivity, our dreams of becoming a trillion-dollar economy will remain distant,” Ogebe noted.
Professor Adeola Adenikinju, President of the Nigerian Economic Society, criticized what he termed Nigeria’s “abnormal growth path.” He explained that the country has skipped industrialisation and jumped from a primarily agricultural economy to a service-driven one, leading to a stunted manufacturing base.
“You can’t develop a large economy like Nigeria’s without strong manufacturing. Agriculture and services, being low-income and informal-sector driven, cannot drive high-wage job creation or reduce poverty meaningfully,” Adenikinju said.
He also condemned the underperformance of the oil and gas sector, which, despite its potential, contributes just 4% to GDP. “That sector could be transformative if horizontally integrated across the economy,” he said.
Deloitte West Africa’s Chief Economist, Damilola Akinbami, highlighted how the vast informal sector, contributing over 43% to GDP, limits Nigeria’s tax base. “Formalisation is still elusive due to cumbersome regulatory systems,” she said. “If we could reduce the informal sector’s share to just 20%, government revenue would receive a significant boost.”
Akinbami stressed the need for digital tools and user-friendly registration systems to onboard informal businesses into the tax net. “The hustle economy isn’t sustainable for long-term development,” she added.
Analysts at Afrinvest also flagged fiscal implications of the rebased GDP. Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has now fallen to 39.7% from 53.8%, offering the Federal Government more room to borrow under the DMO’s 40% threshold. However, the analysts cautioned against over-leveraging this fiscal space without improving revenue collection.
“The rebasing lowered the tax-to-GDP ratio from 13.5% to 10%, which will likely trigger more aggressive tax reforms in the coming year,” Afrinvest stated.
Despite retaining their 3.3% GDP growth forecast for 2025, the firm warned of downside risks including insecurity in agrarian regions, persistent inflation, and tight monetary conditions.
Nigeria’s rebased GDP may reflect a broader and more inclusive economy on paper, but without substantial improvements in productivity, industrial capacity, and competitiveness, the gains remain superficial. As experts warn, true economic progress lies not in statistical reclassifications, but in meaningful structural reforms, improved governance, and targeted investment in high-productivity sectors.