Polls have opened in Taiwan’s recall election, where voters will decide the fate of 24 Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers. The outcome could give President William Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) control of parliament, sending a strong rebuke to China. Critics have denounced the recall election as an assault on democracy, while Taiwan’s government accuses China of “unprecedented” interference in the democratic process.
The DPP needs to unseat a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers to gain temporary control of parliament. Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group gives this outcome a “60 percent probability”. If successful, the DPP would then need to flip six seats in by-elections later this year to cement its dominance in Taiwan’s 113-seat parliament.
The heated recall campaign has been closely watched by China, which has repeatedly commented on and used the KMT’s talking points to lambaste Lai. Taipei says Beijing is “clearly” trying to interfere in the vote, and it’s up to the Taiwanese people to decide who should be removed or stay in office. Lai has offered talks with China many times but has been rebuffed by Beijing, which has called him a “separatist”.
The recall election is significant not only for Taiwan’s domestic politics but also for its relations with China. The KMT is more conciliatory to China, while the DPP is more assertive in its stance against Beijing. The outcome of the election could have implications for Taiwan’s military budget and defence spending, which has been complicated by the current political divide.
As the polls close at 4pm local time, the results are expected to become clear later in the evening. The world is watching closely, given the potential implications for Taiwan’s relations with China and the broader geopolitical landscape.