The United States has, for the first time, emerged as a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria, driven largely by increased demand from the newly operational Dangote Refinery and refinery maintenance activities on the US East Coast.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Nigeria imported more crude oil from the US in February and March 2025 than it exported to the North American country. This marks a significant shift in the trade flow between both nations, as Nigeria has traditionally been an oil exporter to the US, ranking as the ninth-largest supplier in 2024.
The Dangote Refinery, which commenced operations in January 2024 after several years of delays, has significantly altered Nigeria’s crude trade patterns. Designed to process 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), with an upgraded capacity target of 700,000 bpd by December 2025, the refinery has been importing substantial volumes of foreign crude to meet its operational demands.
Data from the EIA shows that US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 111,000 bpd in February and 169,000 bpd in March, while Nigeria’s exports to the US dropped to 54,000 bpd and 72,000 bpd, respectively, within the same period. In January, Nigeria had exported 133,000 bpd to the US.
Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, disclosed that the refinery imports up to 10 million barrels of US crude oil monthly as part of its feedstock supply strategy.
The EIA attributed the decline in US imports of Nigerian crude to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery in New Jersey, which limited demand for Nigerian oil on the US East Coast. However, imports are expected to recover as Bayway resumed full operations in April.
Market analysts believe the current trade dynamics may not represent a long-term shift. Eli Tesfaye, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, described it as a “snapshot of a very fluid market,” noting that the Dangote Refinery’s reliance on imported crude might reduce once it begins sourcing more Nigerian grades.
Similarly, Giovanni Staunovo, an oil analyst at UBS, said, “The refinery is expected to secure more domestic supplies going forward, making it uncertain whether the high volume of US crude exports to Nigeria will persist.”
The development highlights Nigeria’s increasing domestic refining capacity but also raises concerns over its ability to meet the quality and quantity requirements of local refiners. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has pledged to ramp up domestic crude supplies to meet refinery demand and reduce reliance on foreign imports.
Energy experts warn that Nigeria must address production constraints and pipeline security challenges to sustain crude availability for local refineries.
Despite this, the Dangote Refinery is expected to cut Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products significantly, saving billions in foreign exchange once it reaches full capacity.
While the US temporarily takes the lead as Nigeria’s top crude supplier, experts believe the trend could shift again once domestic crude supplies stabilize. However, in the short term, Nigeria’s increasing refinery operations mean it may continue to source crude internationally to bridge supply gaps.
The development also underscores the changing dynamics of global oil trade, with refining capacities and local market needs reshaping traditional trade flows.