EU-China Summit: Low Expectations Amidst Simmering Tensions

The upcoming EU-China summit, marking 50 years of diplomatic relations, is overshadowed by old grievances despite Beijing’s efforts to reset relations with Brussels. Top European Union officials Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa are set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for the 25th EU-China summit. However, expectations for significant breakthroughs are low due to ongoing disputes.

Marina Rudyak, an assistant professor at the Institute of Chinese Studies at Germany’s Heidelberg University, notes that China’s approach to the summit is centered on normalizing relations, focusing on pragmatic cooperation, and accommodating areas of agreement and disagreement. “What we see a lot from the Chinese side, and this is quite constant, is ‘let’s normalize the relations, let’s focus on pragmatic cooperation, let’s focus on where we agree and accommodate where we disagree’,” Rudyak said.

Tensions between the EU and China are palpable, particularly over issues like human rights and political oppression in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Tibet. The relationship took a turn in 2021 when the EU sanctioned Chinese officials for their treatment of ethnic minority Uighur Muslims, prompting China to impose its own sanctions on Europeans. Although Beijing lifted sanctions on European MEPs in April as a gesture of goodwill, other fractures remain, including China’s close relationship with Russia since the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

The EU has accused China of enabling Russia’s war efforts by buying Russian energy exports and selling dual-use goods that can be used for civilian and military purposes. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly stated that Beijing doesn’t want to see Russia lose the war against Ukraine, as it would free up the US’s attention.

William Yang, a senior analyst at the Crisis Group, believes these issues will cast a shadow over the summit. “Beijing considers its relationship with Russia as a core interest amid ongoing competition with the US, and it keeps denying the EU’s criticism that it is an enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Yang said. “With these fundamental contradictions, prospects of any significant breakthrough at the upcoming summit are unlikely.”

The EU-China economic relationship is another source of tension. China is the EU’s third-largest trading partner, but EU officials are concerned about their growing trade deficit with China, which doubled to 305.8 billion euros ($359 billion) last year. The EU has accused China of overproduction and dumping cheap state-subsidized exports on the European market. Rudyak highlights that Europe is concerned about its core industries, including automotive, and the impact of Chinese EV overcapacity on the EU market.

Despite low expectations, Marta Mucznik, a senior EU analyst at the Crisis Group, hopes the summit will open up communication channels between officials. “The EU doesn’t expect breakthroughs from this summit but sees it as a chance to keep communication channels open with Chinese leaders while it works to carve out its geopolitical role and reduce critical dependencies,” Mucznik said.

In a related development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the US is prioritizing the quality of trade agreements over meeting the August deadline. Bessent added that the US would engage with China in talks, focusing on Beijing’s purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil and excess capacity in sectors like steel.