As the United States enters its hottest months of the year, fire officials and scientists are bracing for wildfire activity to ramp up in California. Despite a relatively mild season so far, experts warn that the state’s dry vegetation and hot temperatures create a high risk for devastating fires. “We’ve had a number of small-to-medium-sized fires, but nothing too startling so far,” said Max Moritz, a wildfire specialist at the University of California at Santa Barbara. “But that’s kind of where we’d expect to be at this point in the season. And we’ve seen some factors that point to what could be a fairly severe fire season as we enter the drier months.”
Scientists say that California’s wildfires are influenced by a variety of factors, including drought, high winds, and human error. The state’s chaparral landscape, typified by low-lying shrubs like sage, is especially prone to fire. According to the US Drought Monitor, about 23% of California is currently experiencing conditions ranging from severe to exceptional drought, with many of those areas concentrated in southern California.
To mitigate the risk of wildfires, California has implemented prescribed burns, which involve intentionally introducing fire to a landscape under controlled circumstances to help thin excess vegetation. “Prescribed burns are something we’ve definitely encouraged,” said Jesse Torres, a spokesperson with Cal Fire. “We’re doing a lot more of them than we used to.” However, fire scientists argue that the scale of these efforts is still insufficient to have a significant impact on the state’s fire activity.
Climate change has contributed to longer and more intense fire seasons in California. “If forests were more resilient, the impact of these fires would be less extreme,” said Scott Stephens, a professor of fire science and forest policy at the University of California, Berkeley. The state’s largest fire of the year so far, the Madre Fire, burned about 80,000 acres in central California and is now more than 95% contained.
The Trump administration’s efforts to downscale the federal government, including reducing emergency services and scientific research, have sparked concerns among scientists and fire officials. “We rely a lot on modelled forecasts for different weather events, and fire weather is certainly an example of that,” said Moritz. “If these services take a hit, we’re all at risk of worse outcomes.” The administration’s proposal to overhaul the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and redistribute its responsibilities to state and local governments has also raised concerns about the potential impact on disaster response and recovery efforts.