Japan’s ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is expected to lose its majority in the upper house election, according to exit polls. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito are forecast to secure between 32 and 51 seats, short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper chamber.
This potential loss would mark a significant setback for Ishiba, who has struggled to inspire confidence amid Japan’s economic challenges, including rising prices and trade negotiations with the United States. The LDP’s defeat would also undermine its influence over policymaking, potentially leading to political instability.
“The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,” said David Boling, a director at consulting firm Eurasia Group. “Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home”.
Voter frustration with the government’s handling of the economy and immigration policies appears to have contributed to the coalition’s expected loss. The populist Sanseito party, which has campaigned on an anti-immigration platform, is forecast to win 10-15 seats, up from one seat previously. Sanseito’s “Japanese First” campaign and warnings about a “silent invasion” of foreigners have resonated with some voters.
Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito, expressed concerns about the presence of foreigners in his graduate program, stating, “When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected”.
The expected loss for the ruling coalition comes as Japan faces significant economic challenges, including a looming deadline to strike a trade deal with the United States. Failure to reach an agreement could result in punishing tariffs, further pressuring the Japanese economy. The government’s bond market is also jittery, with investors worrying about Japan’s ability to refinance its massive debt pile.
A poor performance by the LDP could lead to a change in leadership, with potential candidates including Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, and Shinjiro Koizumi. Such a change would likely unleash political drama and destabilize Japan’s government at a critical moment in US-Japan trade negotiations. The last three LDP premiers who lost a majority in the upper house stepped down within two months, and analysts predict a similar outcome this time around.