Japan‘s minority government, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is expected to face another setback in the upcoming upper house election. The election, which will determine the fate of 125 seats, is seen as a crucial test for Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito. According to polls, the coalition may struggle to retain its majority, potentially repeating the disastrous outcome of the October election when the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the lower house.
The LDP has been ruling Japan for almost all of the country’s post-war history, but the party’s popularity has been waning due to economic concerns. Inflation has become a significant issue, with the price of rice doubling since last year due to poor harvests and government policies. This has led to widespread discontent among voters, with opposition parties promising tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow of Japan’s long-running economic stagnation.
Meanwhile, the Sanseito party, a populist party that has gained traction with its “Japanese First” campaign and anti-immigration stance, is forcing the government to address growing concerns about foreigners in Japan. The party’s leader, Sohei Kamiya, said, “In the past, anyone who brought up immigration would be attacked by the left. We are getting bashed too, but are also gaining support.” Kamiya added, “The LDP and Komeito can’t stay silent if they want to keep their support.”
The Sanseito party’s rise to prominence has been fueled by concerns about over-tourism and a lack of respect for local customs. While foreigners still make up only a small fraction of Japan’s population, the country has taken in about a million immigrant workers over the past three years to fill jobs left vacant by its ageing population.
If the LDP’s seat share is eroded, as expected, Ishiba will likely seek to broaden his coalition or strike informal deals with opposition parties. However, doing so with Sanseito could prove problematic for the LDP, which owes much of its longevity to its broad appeal and centrist image. “If the party [LDP] goes too far right, it loses the centrists,” Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation think tank in Tokyo, said.
In a worst-case election outcome for the LDP, David Boling, director for Japan and Asian trade at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, believes Ishiba may be forced out of office. “If he had an overwhelming loss, I think he would have to resign,” Boling said. Such a move would unleash political turmoil, particularly given the urgent need to secure a trade deal with the US before an August 1 deadline.
The trade talks between Japan and the US are a pressing concern, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meeting with Ishiba on Friday. Bessent said, “A good deal is more important than a rushed deal. A mutually beneficial trade agreement between the United States and Japan remains within the realm of possibility.” The outcome of the election will likely have significant implications for Japan’s economy and its relationship with the US.