New reports have emerged casting doubt on the effectiveness of the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last month. According to intelligence assessments cited by NBC News and The Washington Post, only one of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, the Fordow facility, was destroyed. The reports raise questions about President Donald Trump’s assertion that the US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
US Secretary of Defense has responded to the reports, reiterating that all three sites were “completely and totally obliterated.” However, the Pentagon’s assessment has been disputed by intelligence officials, who say that the facilities in Natanz and Isfahan had deep tunnels that were likely impenetrable to US bombs. According to a congressional aide familiar with intelligence briefings, the Pentagon had assessed that the underground facilities at Isfahan were “pretty much impenetrable.”
The US military did not use enormous bunker-busting bombs against the Isfahan site, instead targeting surface infrastructure. An initial US intelligence assessment leaked after the attack suggested that the strikes failed to destroy key components of Iran’s nuclear program and only delayed its work by months. However, the Pentagon claimed that the attacks degraded the Iranian program by one to two years.
The location and state of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remain unknown, and it is unclear whether the strikes resulted in uranium contamination. Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said that Iran could resume uranium enrichment in a “matter of months.” Grossi also noted that the uranium containers may have been damaged in the attacks, but it is unknown where the material could be or if part of it could have been under attack during those 12 days.
Despite the conflicting assessments, both the US and Iran have expressed willingness to engage in diplomacy to resolve the nuclear file. European officials have suggested that they could impose “snap-back” sanctions against Iran as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Europeans should put aside “worn-out policies of threat and pressure” and that any new round of talks is only possible when the other side is ready for a fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial nuclear deal.
The conflict between the US and Iran escalated after Israel launched a massive attack against Iran on June 13, killing several top military officials and nuclear scientists. The US joined the Israeli campaign on June 22, striking three nuclear sites in Iran. Iran retaliated with a missile attack against an air base housing US troops in Qatar. The war resulted in significant damage and loss of life on both sides, and the situation remains volatile.
The reports casting doubt on the impact of the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites highlight the complexities and uncertainties of military action in the region. As diplomatic efforts continue, it remains to be seen whether a resolution can be reached to address the concerns surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and reduce tensions in the region.