Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025, marking the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest rate recorded so far this year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure represents a 0.75 percentage point drop from May’s 22.97% and a substantial 11.97 percentage point decline year-on-year compared to 34.19% in June 2024.
Analysts attribute this downward trend to a combination of a high base-year effect and the relative stability of the naira, following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary reforms. However, despite the positive headline figure, month-on-month inflation rose to 1.68% in June, up from 1.53% in May, indicating that while prices are not accelerating as fast annually, Nigerian households continue to face significant cost-of-living pressures.
Food inflation—traditionally the biggest component of Nigeria’s CPI—dropped sharply to 21.97% year-on-year in June, down from 40.87% in the same month last year, reflecting the base-year impact. However, month-on-month food inflation surged to 3.25%, driven by price increases in tomatoes, pepper, plantain flour, crayfish, meat, and other staples.
The average annual food inflation for the twelve months ending June 2025 stood at 28.28%, down by 7.02 percentage points from 35.3% in the previous year. Notably, Borno State recorded the highest food inflation at 47.40%, followed by Ebonyi (30.62%) and Bayelsa (28.64%), while Katsina (6.21%) and Adamawa (10.90%) reported the lowest food inflation.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like agricultural produce and energy, declined to 22.76% year-on-year, compared to 27.4% in June 2024. However, month-on-month core inflation increased to 2.46% from 1.10%, signaling renewed pressures in non-food components such as housing, transport, and electricity.
Urban and rural areas recorded diverging inflation patterns:
Urban inflation fell to 22.72% year-on-year but increased to 2.11% month-on-month, driven by higher demand in cities.
Rural inflation slowed to 20.85% year-on-year and dropped to 0.63% month-on-month, suggesting a moderation in rural price pressures.
The NBS report highlighted significant variations across states:
Highest headline inflation: Borno (31.63%), Abuja (26.79%), and Benue (25.91%).
Lowest headline inflation: Zamfara (9.90%), Yobe (13.51%), and Sokoto (15.78%).
Fastest month-on-month increases: Ekiti (5.39%), Delta (5.15%), and Lagos (5.13%).
The Afrinvest Group, which had projected a 22.2% inflation rate for June, attributed the easing trend to two key factors:
Naira appreciation – The local currency strengthened by 3.6% in June, closing at ₦1,529.71/$, following the CBN’s tight monetary policies and attractive OMO bill yields.
High base-year effect – The sharp drop from last year’s 34.2% inflation figure amplified the disinflation trend.
Despite the positive figures, Afrinvest analysts warned that insecurity, flooding in food-producing regions, and supply chain disruptions could keep prices elevated in the coming months. They predicted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would likely maintain its current interest rate stance to sustain foreign exchange stability.
While the slowdown in annual inflation offers some relief to policymakers, the persistent monthly rise in prices underscores the pressure on Nigerian households, particularly as food and transport costs remain high. Restaurants, accommodation services, and education also contributed significantly to the headline index.
Experts believe that fiscal and monetary authorities must complement disinflation efforts with policies aimed at improving food supply chains, addressing insecurity in farming communities, and stabilizing energy prices to prevent further shocks.