The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected $4.1 billion into the foreign exchange market in the first half of 2025, a 215% surge compared to the $1.3 billion deployed in the same period last year. The move, according to a new CSL Stockbrokers H2 2025 Outlook Report, is aimed at stabilising the naira amid persistent volatility, weak capital inflows, and declining foreign reserves.
Despite the aggressive intervention, Nigeria’s gross external reserves dropped by $3.67 billion, falling from $40.88 billion in January to $37.21 billion at the end of June 2025. Analysts warn that while the CBN’s intervention has temporarily stabilised the naira, the sustainability of such large-scale support remains uncertain without a significant boost in oil revenue, foreign investments, or external financing.
The naira, which opened 2025 at ₦1,535/$, appreciated slightly to ₦1,530/$ by the end of June, marking a year-to-date gain of 0.4%. According to CSL, the apex bank’s intervention was most pronounced in April, when the naira temporarily weakened to ₦1,630/$ following heightened investor risk aversion triggered by new US trade tariffs.
The report noted, “Notably, the apex bank injected about $4.1bn into the FX market in H1 2025, demonstrating a stronger commitment to supporting market liquidity compared to the $1.3bn provided last year.”
Industry experts are questioning how long the CBN can sustain this strategy. CSL warns that FX inflows could remain under pressure in the second half of 2025, with oil exports projected to fall by 20% year-on-year to $36.4bn due to production constraints and lower crude prices.

Additionally, foreign portfolio investment inflows remain weak, despite an increase in foreign participation in Nigeria’s equities market to 29% as of May 2025. Analysts project that while the CBN may maintain interventions in the short term, the naira could trade between ₦1,500 and ₦1,600/$ in H2 2025, provided FX inflows do not improve significantly.
CSL also projects that the CBN may cut interest rates by 100 to 150 basis points in Q4 2025 as inflationary pressures ease, a move that could weaken the naira by reducing the appeal of naira-denominated assets to foreign investors.
Members of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) have backed the apex bank’s decision, stressing that no responsible central bank allows its currency to float freely without occasional interventions.
Speaking to journalists, Segun Kuti-George, National Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, said the intervention was necessary to maintain stability:
“No serious monetary authority allows its currency to be determined solely by market forces. The CBN’s intervention has provided predictability, allowing businesses to plan better in the medium term.”
Similarly, Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, described the intervention as a positive step that has improved investor confidence. “The extreme volatility we saw early in the FX reforms has reduced considerably, allowing businesses to plan and foreign investors to regain confidence,” he noted.
While supporting the intervention, some financial analysts have warned of the dangers of over-reliance on FX injections. David Adonri, CEO of Highcap Securities, described the current scale of intervention as “not sustainable,” stressing that structural reforms are needed to boost non-oil FX inflows.
Economist Adewale Abimbola also stressed the need for Nigeria to diversify its FX sources: “The naira is not yet ready to survive without CBN support. We need to scale up manufacturing and agricultural exports to reduce dependence on oil earnings.”
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected $4.1 billion into the foreign exchange market in the first half of 2025, a 215% surge compared to the $1.3 billion deployed in the same period last year. The move, according to a new CSL Stockbrokers H2 2025 Outlook Report, is aimed at stabilising the naira amid persistent volatility, weak capital inflows, and declining foreign reserves.
Despite the aggressive intervention, Nigeria’s gross external reserves dropped by $3.67 billion, falling from $40.88 billion in January to $37.21 billion at the end of June 2025. Analysts warn that while the CBN’s intervention has temporarily stabilised the naira, the sustainability of such large-scale support remains uncertain without a significant boost in oil revenue, foreign investments, or external financing.