Nigeria has recorded a significant boost in crude oil production, surpassing its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for the second time in 2025. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s average crude output in June stood at 1,505,474 barrels per day (bpd)—representing 100.4 per cent of its OPEC allocation of 1.5 million bpd.
When combined with condensates, total oil production for the month averaged 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd), showing a steady rise from 1.65 mbpd in May and 1.6 mbpd in March. The highest recorded production in June reached 1.82 mbpd, with NUPRC describing it as a milestone in stabilising output after months of fluctuations.
However, the current output still falls short of the 2.06 mbpd production target set in Nigeria’s 2025 budget.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.), Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, expressed optimism that production would continue to rise steadily, with projections to hit 1.9 mbpd by December 2025. Speaking at a town hall meeting with staff at the NNPC Towers in Abuja, Ojulari noted that output had climbed from 1.56 mbpd in March to the current level, including condensates.
“We have started growing. By the end of the year, we are hoping to clock 1.9 million barrels daily, and by 2027, our medium-term target is 2.06 million barrels per day,” Ojulari assured.
According to him, the improved output was largely due to the 100 per cent availability of major crude oil pipelines for the first time in years, following industry-wide security interventions coordinated by the NNPC.
Pipeline vandalism and oil theft have been major setbacks for Nigeria’s oil production over the past decade, causing the country to lose billions in revenue. However, Ojulari noted that the recent clampdown on oil theft and sabotage—through tighter surveillance, private security partnerships, and community engagement—has drastically improved crude delivery across key pipelines.
Experts have also linked the steady production growth to NNPC’s consistent fulfilment of cash-call obligations to Joint Venture (JV) operations, which has restored investor confidence in the sector.
With improved infrastructure security and higher production, analysts predict Nigeria could consolidate its status as Africa’s largest oil producer, especially as other OPEC members struggle with production cuts.
Exceeding OPEC’s quota could boost Nigeria’s revenue prospects, particularly as the government battles inflation and a depreciating naira. Higher oil output translates to increased foreign exchange earnings, which are crucial for stabilising the country’s external reserves and funding budgetary obligations.
However, energy analysts warn that sustained production above OPEC’s agreed limits could attract scrutiny or potential penalties from the cartel, which has maintained strict output controls to stabilise global oil prices.
Despite these concerns, local oil marketers and industry stakeholders believe that Nigeria’s rising output is a positive sign, especially as the country works to maximise oil revenues before the global energy transition further reduces fossil fuel demand.
Ojulari has urged both local and foreign investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s improving oil production environment. “With 100 per cent pipeline availability and increasing output, this is the right time to invest. The Nigerian market remains viable for oil exploration and production,” he said.
Industry players agree that sustained growth will depend on continued security improvements, timely funding of JV operations, and policy consistency under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
As Nigeria pushes towards its ambitious 2.06 mbpd target by 2027, the coming months will determine whether the country can maintain its upward production trend without violating OPEC agreements.