The Russian stock exchange reacted positively to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Russia, rising 2.7%. This response may seem counterintuitive, given the threat of tariffs, but it reflects Russia’s expectation of even tougher sanctions from the Trump administration. Moscow had been bracing for more severe measures, so the 50-day delay before secondary tariffs kick in provides an opportunity for Russia to come up with counterproposals and delay implementation.
Trump’s announcement marks a shift in his approach to Russia, reflecting his frustration with Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to sign a peace deal in Ukraine. Despite previous attempts to improve bilateral relations and negotiate a peace deal, Moscow has insisted on its terms, including an end to Western arms shipments to Ukraine. Trump made it clear that this is not going to happen, signaling a tougher stance on Russia.
The relationship between Trump and Putin has become increasingly strained. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin, stating, “I’m disappointed in him, but I’m not done with him.” He also noted that he trusts almost no one, including Putin. “I trust almost no-one,” Trump said when asked about Putin. This sentiment reflects the complexity of their relationship, with both leaders seemingly disillusioned with each other.
In a recent interview, Trump recounted his experiences with Putin, saying, “We’ll have a great conversation. I’ll say: ‘That’s good, I’ll think we’re close to getting it done,’ and then he’ll knock down a building in Kyiv.” This frustration stems from Putin’s actions in Ukraine, where Russia has intensified its drone and missile attacks, causing record civilian casualties.
Russia has been playing for time, using a “Yes, but…” approach to avoid additional US sanctions while continuing to prosecute the war. The Kremlin believes it holds the initiative on the battlefield and insists it wants peace, but on its terms. Critics argue that Russia is merely stalling, and Trump’s recent announcements signal a shift towards a more hawkish stance.
The Russian media has also responded critically to Trump’s announcements. Moskovsky Komsomolets wrote that Trump “clearly has delusions of grandeur. And a very big mouth,” reflecting the growing disillusionment between the two leaders.
The implications of Trump’s tougher stance on Russia remain to be seen. While the threat of tariffs may not be pleasant for Russia, the 50-day delay provides an opportunity for Moscow to respond and delay implementation. Trump’s administration has prioritized supporting Ukraine, with new arms shipments and a commitment to collective defense. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the dynamics between the US and Russia have become increasingly complex, with both leaders navigating a delicate balance of diplomacy and confrontation.