Nigeria’s trade ties with the United States have taken a sharp hit, with the country losing $527 million in exports to its once top trading partner in just five months — a steep 20 per cent year-on-year decline. This development, which analysts attribute to rising trade tensions and punitive tariff policies under US President Donald Trump, signals growing strain in bilateral economic relations.

According to official data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Nigeria exported $2.12 billion worth of goods to the United States between January and May 2025, down from $2.65 billion in the same period of 2024. This downward trend coincides with President Trump’s controversial executive order, signed on April 2, 2025, imposing a 10 per cent general tariff on imports from most countries, including a 14 per cent rate on Nigerian goods due to its prior trade surplus with the US.

Although crude oil — Nigeria’s major export — was excluded from the tariff list, the overall trade decline reflects broader market disruptions. US imports of Nigerian crude dropped to 17.39 million barrels (valued at $1.34 billion) in the first five months of 2025, compared to 20.4 million barrels ($1.52 billion) during the same period last year. The dip points to changing US sourcing strategies and global oil market adjustments, not just tariff impacts.

In contrast, US exports to Nigeria surged by 17.8 per cent within the same period, rising from $2.05 billion in 2024 to $2.42 billion in 2025. The automotive sector accounted for a large portion, with $426 million worth of motor vehicles and parts shipped to Nigeria. Passenger cars alone made up $312 million of that figure.

This divergence has reversed the trade balance between both countries. While the US posted a $596 million trade deficit with Nigeria in the first five months of 2024, it now enjoys a $295 million surplus. May 2025 marked a pivotal month, with US exports to Nigeria hitting $515 million compared to Nigeria’s $400 million in exports to the US.

The declining export trend raises red flags for Nigeria’s economic strategy, particularly its struggle to diversify beyond crude oil. Despite its status as the largest supplier of African crude to the US — contributing 62 per cent of total African crude imports to America — Nigeria’s non-oil sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing remain weakly competitive on the global stage.

More concerning is Nigeria’s dwindling influence in broader US–Africa trade. In 2025 so far, Nigeria accounted for only 10.8 per cent of US imports from Africa, lagging behind countries like South Africa and Egypt. Egypt has now emerged as the top African destination for US exports, while South Africa dominates US imports, with $8.67 billion worth of goods shipped to the US — more than four times Nigeria’s figure.

The situation is further complicated by Nigeria’s growing alignment with the BRICS bloc. In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s trade with BRICS nations ballooned to ₦5.41 trillion — over three times its trade volume with the US. This pivot has drawn sharp responses from Washington. President Trump has threatened a further 10 per cent tariff on BRICS-aligned nations, potentially pushing Nigeria’s tariff exposure to 24 per cent.

While Nigerian officials maintain that the country is only a BRICS partner and not a full member, stakeholders in the private sector are already feeling the tremors. Dr Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, warned that the rising global trade tension could trigger supply chain disruptions, increase production costs, and hinder the country’s drive for export diversification.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty,” he said. “This is why Nigeria must invest more in its own production capabilities and reduce overdependence on foreign partners.”

Segun Kuti-George, Vice President of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, echoed these concerns, describing Trump’s tariff policy as a wake-up call. He called for a stronger inward-looking strategy, urging Nigeria to “consume what we produce” and invest in local industries.

From the government’s side, reassurance came from the Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol, Mr Ademola Oshodi, who downplayed fears of a looming tariff hike. He emphasized Nigeria’s continued engagement with Western allies, noting that “Nigeria is not yet a full BRICS member,” and thus may be spared the full weight of the proposed sanctions.

Nevertheless, experts agree that Nigeria’s economic positioning is at a crossroads. The emerging global realignment, including intensified US-China competition, BRICS expansion, and protectionist shifts in Western trade policy, presents both risks and opportunities for Nigeria.

To remain competitive, economists urge the Nigerian government to accelerate structural reforms, remove regulatory bottlenecks, and support non-oil exporters through targeted incentives and logistics improvements. Equally vital is leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to build regional trade networks and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

As the US election cycle intensifies and global trade dynamics evolve, Nigeria must carefully navigate its geopolitical alliances and economic partnerships — balancing ideological shifts with pragmatic trade interests.