The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sparked both skepticism and hope for a potential end to the Gaza war. Trump has expressed optimism about reaching a deal for a 60-day ceasefire, which would allow all parties to work towards an end to Israel’s 21-month-long war on the besieged enclave. However, many experts are pessimistic about the prospects of a lasting ceasefire.
According to a leaked copy of the deal obtained by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire would entail a 60-day pause in hostilities and a phased release of some of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas has given a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators about the latest ceasefire proposal, but Israel has expressed reservations, stating that Hamas’s requested changes to the proposal are “unacceptable”.
Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs, expressed skepticism about the ceasefire talks, saying, “The way [the ceasefire talks] are being framed leaves me skeptical.” Rahman believes that Trump is focused on getting the Israeli captives released, but not on ending the war and the suffering of the people of Gaza.
Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group, shared similar concerns, stating, “It all rests on Trump and the US to sustain real pressure [on Netanyahu], but that is highly doubtful.” Zonszein added that while a ceasefire might be possible, its longevity and terms are highly questionable.
Yaser al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, noted that many in the Strip are divided over whether a ceasefire will end the war. “About half the people in Gaza are very pessimistic… The other half believes this time could be different due to shared interests among Israel, the Palestinians, Arab states and the US to end this war,” he said.
Analysts believe that Trump’s desire to strike grandiose deals drives his push for a ceasefire. Khaled Elgindy, an expert on Israel-Palestine and a professor of Arab Studies at Georgetown University, said, “Trump wants to be able to say that he got back the Israeli hostages… and got a Palestinian state… Then he can call himself master of the universe, but getting those things is much harder than he thinks.”
Netanyahu’s political calculations, however, may not align with Trump’s ambitions. Israel’s next parliamentary elections have to take place before October 2026, and Netanyahu could go to the polls sooner, riding on a likely wave of popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining captives.
The meeting between Trump and Netanyahu may lead to a ceasefire agreement, but the challenges are significant. Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition would likely collapse if a permanent ceasefire is reached. According to Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations, “At the end of [the possible] 60-day ceasefire, [Netanyahu] could go to elections by committing to a full end to the war and collapse his coalition; or he could go back to war to keep his [far-right] coalition together should he judge the time not right for elections.”
The potential for a major shift in US-Israel relations also exists, with Trump suggesting he might pressure Netanyahu’s opponents to issue a pardon in exchange for ending the war on Gaza. However, this seems unlikely, given the unprecedented nature of such a move.
As the situation unfolds, one thing is clear: the outcome of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting will have significant implications for the future of the Gaza war and the broader Middle East region.