The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to announce the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Nigeria on Thursday, July 11, 2025, in a move that could significantly alter the country’s economic outlook and reshape key fiscal indicators. This development comes more than a decade after the last GDP rebasing in 2014, when Nigeria’s economic size surged by 89% following a revision of the base year from 1990 to 2010.
A senior source within the bureau confirmed to The Nation that the new figures are likely to be released on July 11, although an official statement has not yet been issued. When contacted, the NBS Head of Public Relations, Folorunso Alesanmi, said a final confirmation would be given on Monday.
The anticipated rebasing is part of routine economic recalibration aimed at reflecting current realities, including shifts in the structure of the economy, emerging sectors, and technological advancements that may have previously gone unaccounted for.
Implications of the Upcoming Rebasing
Experts anticipate that the revised GDP figures will have wide-ranging implications for Nigeria’s economic narrative. A rise in the overall GDP figure could lead to:
Lower debt-to-GDP ratio: With a larger economic base, Nigeria’s current debt levels would appear smaller in proportion to GDP, potentially easing concerns about fiscal sustainability.
Higher per capita income: An upward revision of GDP would push up income per person, which could boost investor confidence and Nigeria’s standing in global economic rankings.
Improved tax-to-GDP ratio: The government’s tax revenue as a share of economic output may improve on paper, though real challenges in tax administration may persist.
More accurate policymaking: The updated data will give policymakers a clearer picture of the economy’s structure, allowing for better-informed decisions and targeted reforms.
In 2014, Nigeria shocked the world by rebasing its GDP from 1990 to 2010, resulting in an 89% surge that made the country Africa’s largest economy at the time. The revision captured new sectors such as telecoms, fintech, e-commerce, and the booming Nollywood industry, all of which had grown significantly since 1990 but were not previously reflected in national accounts.
Now, with rapid digital transformation, evolving consumer behavior, and growth in the creative and tech industries, economic analysts believe another rebasing is long overdue.
Expert Reactions
Economic analysts and international observers are closely watching the move. Speaking to The Nation, development economist Dr. Salihu Gambo noted:
“Rebasing does not mean Nigeria suddenly becomes richer. What it does is give a more realistic view of how wealth is generated and distributed in the modern economy.”
He added that while the rebasing might temporarily improve headline indicators like the debt-to-GDP ratio, it should not be mistaken for a solution to Nigeria’s deep-rooted fiscal issues.
Broader Economic Context
The GDP rebasing comes at a critical time for Nigeria. The country’s debt servicing costs rose to 4.1% of GDP in 2024, and over 77% of government revenue is now consumed by debt repayments. Additionally, the nation’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains low at 5.2%, far below the African average of 15%.
In this environment, accurate economic data is essential for both domestic policy and international financing negotiations. Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and ratings agencies rely heavily on GDP figures to assess creditworthiness and macroeconomic stability.
If the rebased GDP significantly expands the size of the Nigerian economy, it could bolster investor sentiment and influence fiscal targets in the forthcoming Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). It may also affect debt sustainability models and Nigeria’s eligibility for concessional financing or budget support loans.
While official confirmation from the NBS is expected early in the week, preparations for the launch are reportedly underway, with technical reviews and modeling of the new base year nearing completion.