Global trade activity witnessed a surprising uptick in the first quarter of 2025, driven by businesses racing to move goods ahead of expected tariff hikes. However, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has issued a cautionary note, warning that the momentum is unlikely to hold without substantial policy clarity and demand stability.
According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer report, the global merchandise trade index climbed to 103.5 in March from 102.8 previously—marking a rise above trend. The surge was attributed primarily to importers frontloading shipments in response to intensifying fears of protectionist trade policies.
“Businesses accelerated import orders to beat expected tariff increases, especially in sectors like automotive products and electronics,” said Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist at the WTO.
Air freight and container shipping indices surged to 104.3 and 107.1, respectively, signalling a sharp rise in goods movement across major global trade routes. The automotive sector saw a barometer reading of 105.3, while electronic components held at 102.0. These figures reflect resilient consumer demand, improved supply chain flows, and logistical efficiency gains following years of pandemic disruptions.
Despite the current gains, the WTO noted signs of weakening fundamentals. The forward-looking new export orders index slipped to 97.9—below the baseline of 100—indicating potential trade slowdowns in the months ahead.
In its April 2025 Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the WTO initially projected a 2.7% growth in world merchandise trade under stable tariff scenarios. However, with current global policy trends, the forecast has now been downgraded sharply to just 0.1%.
Persistent trade tensions—particularly between major economies such as the United States and China, and newly imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium products—have cast a shadow over medium-term trade projections.
Ossa cautioned that while the Q1 rebound offers temporary relief, it doesn’t signal a sustainable recovery. “The short-term figures may look encouraging, but the fundamentals remain fragile. Export growth is softening, and once the frontloaded inventory clears, we may see trade volumes begin to taper off again,” he said.
The WTO’s raw materials index, currently hovering at 100.8, also highlights the precarious nature of the rebound. Analysts argue that while logistics indicators are improving, they do not guarantee sustained trade growth without concurrent demand-side support.
Economists and global trade observers agree that unless clear and coordinated trade policy signals emerge, 2025 could prove to be another volatile year for world commerce.
“Policymakers must act decisively to reverse protectionist trends and foster collaboration across borders. Trade is a long game. Temporary booms caused by fear-driven inventory loading only mask deeper structural inefficiencies,” said Dr. Luciana Mendez, a global trade analyst at the International Chamber of Commerce.
For developing countries like Nigeria, the implications are twofold. On one hand, rising global trade volumes could temporarily boost export earnings, particularly in the oil and manufacturing sectors. On the other, a looming slowdown could affect demand for key exports and delay recovery efforts in fragile economies.
Experts are urging Nigerian policymakers to diversify trade routes, enhance local value chains, and invest in trade infrastructure to hedge against unpredictable global headwinds.
While the surge in Q1 global trade has offered a temporary reprieve from prolonged sluggishness, underlying risks—ranging from geopolitical tensions to tariff hikes—remain deeply entrenched. Without stronger trade facilitation policies and global demand recovery, the WTO warns the rebound could be fleeting, setting the stage for another turbulent year in international commerce.