Nigeria has been projected to emerge as one of the world’s five largest economies by 2075, with an estimated gross domestic product (GDP) of $13.1 trillion, according to a report published by Goldman Sachs.
The forecast, contained in a research document titled “The Path to 2075—Slower Global Growth, but Convergence Remains Intact”, was highlighted by The Spectator Index on Friday. It places Nigeria behind only China, India, the United States, and Indonesia, signaling the country’s long-term economic growth potential if structural reforms and economic diversification efforts are sustained.
As per the report, the 2075 economic powerhouses are projected to be:
China – $57 trillion
India – $52.5 trillion
United States – $51.5 trillion
Indonesia – $13.7 trillion
Nigeria – $13.1 trillion
This projection comes at a time when Nigeria’s current GDP stands at approximately $568 billion, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The country’s economy grew by 3.84% in Q4 of 2024, and real GDP is expected to close 2024 at $585.9 billion.
However, this optimism comes with a caveat. Experts warn that for Nigeria to transition from its current status to a multi-trillion-dollar economy within five decades, sustained reforms, security stability, and strong institutional frameworks are paramount.
The forecast also aligns, albeit on a longer timeline, with the economic vision of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, which aims to grow Nigeria’s economy to $1 trillion by 2030. Government officials have repeatedly cited policies aimed at improving ease of doing business, infrastructure upgrades, boosting non-oil exports, and revitalising the energy sector as key enablers of this goal.
Nevertheless, several financial analysts have expressed skepticism. “With Nigeria’s projected GDP growth rate currently hovering around 3.2%, achieving $1 trillion by 2030 would require more than policy declarations—it needs execution, investor confidence, and socio-political stability,” said Dr. Ngozi Adebanjo, a Lagos-based economist.
Goldman Sachs’ long-term outlook for Nigeria rests on several demographic and macroeconomic assumptions:
Youth-driven demographic dividend: Nigeria is projected to become the third most populous country globally by 2050, providing a vast labor force if adequately educated and employed.
Natural resource wealth: Nigeria boasts some of the largest proven reserves of oil and gas in Africa and is also rich in solid minerals.
Urbanization and infrastructure development: Rapid urban expansion and infrastructural investments can catalyze growth across manufacturing, construction, and ICT sectors.
Tech and fintech leadership in Africa: Nigeria’s tech startups have already attracted billions in venture capital, positioning the country as a digital innovation hub.
Despite the optimism, several persistent issues must be addressed for Nigeria to achieve the 2075 projection:
Insecurity: Persistent banditry, terrorism, and herder-farmer clashes continue to hamper agricultural output and investor confidence.
Corruption and governance lapses: Transparent institutions and stronger anti-corruption frameworks remain crucial.
Power sector instability: Nigeria still struggles with epileptic power supply, affecting productivity and economic diversification.
Forex volatility: Currency instability and limited forex access challenge manufacturers and importers.
The Goldman Sachs report, while forward-looking, provides a strong reminder of what is possible when a nation implements sound economic policies consistently. Analysts agree that if Nigeria tackles its governance, security, and infrastructure deficits while empowering its young population, the nation’s economy could transform remarkably over the next 50 years.
In summary, Nigeria’s rise to the world’s top-five economies by 2075 is not guaranteed, but it remains within reach — provided the country sustains its reform momentum, leverages its demographic advantage, and fosters a more investor-friendly environment.