Nigerians may soon witness a long-anticipated drop in the price of petrol as global crude oil prices tumble below $70 per barrel. Industry marketers say a new price regime is likely to emerge this week as key refiners and depot owners adjust to the sharp decline in international crude rates.
Speaking to our correspondent, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) said it expects major players like the Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), and independent marketers to initiate a petrol price adjustment beginning Monday.
“We anticipate there will be a new price regime from tomorrow. The new prices will come from everyone—Dangote, NNPC, and the rest,” said Joseph Obele, PETROAN’s National Publicity Secretary.
The optimism follows a significant drop in crude oil prices over the past week, triggered by a de-escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran. Brent crude slipped to about $67 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate falling to $65—a notable decline from the $77 and $73 levels recorded just a week earlier, according to Oilprice.com.
Despite this market trend, petrol prices in Nigeria remain largely unchanged. Over the weekend, pump prices at most stations still hovered between ₦915 and ₦955 per litre. In the northern regions, the cost spiked to as high as ₦980 due to logistics.
This price rigidity, experts say, is largely driven by the presence of older stock procured when crude was higher. Eche Idoko, spokesman for the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, said, “Until the stocks go down, the price cannot change. Let’s give it a week or two.”
He added that the structural issues within Nigeria’s fuel pricing system—including reliance on imported crude by local refiners like Dangote—undermine the benefits of in-country refining. “What we would have gained in refining locally is lost to crude importation. We need to stop importing crude and start using what we produce,” Idoko stressed.
The current ex-depot price at Dangote Refinery remains ₦880/litre, though competitors like Rainoil, NIPCO, Aiteo, and A.A. Rano have slightly adjusted theirs downward. For instance, Rainoil dropped its price to ₦880 from ₦900, while NIPCO reduced its rate to ₦870.
Despite this, at retail level, stations in Abeokuta, Lagos-Ibadan Expressway axis, and the South-East continue to sell above ₦925, with MRS and NNPC outlets maintaining premium prices.
Petrol prices had shot up earlier in June after the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $80. Marketers like MRS responded swiftly by increasing pump prices from ₦885 to ₦925 in Lagos and up to ₦955 in the South-East.
Industry stakeholders are now urging the Federal Government to intervene with policies that would stabilize fuel prices for the average Nigerian. Last week, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) called for discounted crude allocation to local refineries under the Presidential Committee on the naira-for-crude initiative.
IPMAN Vice President, Hammed Fashola, warned that pump prices could have crossed ₦1,000/litre if the Middle East conflict had intensified. He emphasised the importance of making crude available domestically at an agreed local rate to curb inflation and fuel scarcity.
“We can’t keep tying our fuel prices to international crude benchmarks while importing the same raw material we produce. Local refiners should receive crude at discounted, fixed rates to ease costs and bring down pump prices,” Fashola noted.
As Nigerians brace for the potential price drop, analysts caution that the change may be gradual due to lingering old stock and inefficiencies in the distribution chain.
While market watchers anticipate the much-needed relief, concerns remain over the sustainability of current pricing mechanisms, especially in an economy battling inflation, currency volatility, and fuel affordability crises.
Until the government enforces transparent pricing structures and ensures consistent local crude supply to refiners, experts say fuel pricing in Nigeria will continue to be at the mercy of geopolitics and logistics—not market fairness.