Israel‘s Prime Minister(PM) Benjamin Netanyahu is basking in the glory of a spectacular military victory over Iran, but polling shows that many Israelis don’t trust him. Despite the recent conflict, Netanyahu’s Likud Party would fall well short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset and could struggle to pull together support from smaller parties on the right.
According to Professor Tamar Hermann, a senior Research Fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, “trust” is a significant problem for Netanyahu. “The guy is a very skilful political actor,” she says, “but a political leader who has changed his spots so many times to cling to the reins of power is simply no longer believed by a majority of Israelis.” Netanyahu doesn’t cross the 50% line in terms of Israelis expressing full or even partial trust in him.
The latest polling suggests that 59% of Israelis want the fighting in Gaza to stop now, in exchange for the hostages. Almost half of those asked, some 49%, also thought the only reason Netanyahu is continuing the war is for his own political considerations. This lack of trust is a significant challenge for Netanyahu as he considers calling early elections.
Netanyahu’s decision to reject a ceasefire process in March, which had led to the release of dozens of hostages from Hamas captivity, was widely criticized. Many Israelis, especially the hostage families, were outraged, accusing Netanyahu of putting his own political survival ahead of their relatives’ safety and the greater good of the nation. His popularity in the polls plummeted, and he struggled to keep together a disjointed government.
The prime minister’s upcoming testimony in a high-profile criminal case, in which he’s facing charges of political corruption, including bribery and fraud, adds to his challenges. Netanyahu’s attempts to delay the High Court hearings were rejected, and his supporters have repeatedly tried to portray the legal case against him as part of a “politically driven witch hunt.”
US President Donald Trump’s intervention in Netanyahu’s legal case, calling for the trial to be “cancelled immediately” or for Netanyahu to be given a pardon, has been met with criticism in Israel. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Trump should not “intervene in a legal process of an independent state,” describing it as akin to “treating us like a banana republic.”
Despite the challenges, Netanyahu remains a skilled politician, and his next move is uncertain. As Professor Hermann notes, deciding to call early elections “is an even greater risk [for Netanyahu] than attacking Iran because in the Middle East you really don’t know where you will be in six months”.