China’s Limited Leverage in the Israel-Iran Conflict

The recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran exposed China’s limited leverage in the region, despite its efforts to mediate and position itself as a voice of reason. China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of international law and called for a mediated solution, while President Xi Jinping urged de-escalation.

At the United Nations Security Council, China joined Russia and Pakistan in calling for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”.

China’s concerns were driven by its significant economic interests in the Middle East, including investments in Israel’s tech sector and its Belt and Road infrastructure project spanning several countries in the region.

The country relies heavily on the Middle East for over half of its crude oil imports, making stability in the region crucial for its energy security.

According to Alam Saleh, a senior lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University, “War and security instability not only undermines Chinese investment and trade and business… but also the oil price and gas energy security in general”. Therefore, China seeks stability and disagrees with military solutions for conflicts.

Experts say China’s diplomatic influence remains limited due to its lack of military capabilities and deep political influence in the region. “China’s offer to mediate highlights its desire to be seen as a responsible global player, but its actual leverage remains limited,” said Evangeline Cheng, a research associate at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. China’s role is necessarily constrained, particularly given Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.

Despite these limitations, China has demonstrated its ability to broker major diplomatic deals in the region. In 2023, it mediated the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and in July 2024, it mediated an agreement between Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah, to work together on Gaza’s governance.

However, William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, notes that the odds were stacked against China in the latest conflict due to Israel’s wariness towards its relationship with Iran.

China’s relationship with Iran is built on a 25-year strategic partnership, and Iran’s participation in the Belt and Road project and the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Yang said this scenario reinforces the dilemma China faces: while it wants to be viewed as a great power capable of mediating global conflicts, its close relationships with specific parties diminish its ability to play such a role. For now, Beijing will continue to rely on the US as a security guarantor in the region.

In conclusion, China’s limited leverage in the Israel-Iran conflict highlights the challenges it faces in becoming an influential player in the Middle East. While it will continue to focus on deepening economic engagement with countries in the region, its ability to mediate conflicts will remain constrained by its limited military capabilities and political influence.