The United States’ military involvement in Somalia has increased significantly under the Trump administration, with air strikes more than doubling since last year. According to US Africa Command (AFRICOM), the US has carried out at least 43 air strikes in Somalia in 2025, with more than half targeting IS-Somalia, the ISIL affiliate in northeast Puntland state, and the remainder targeting al-Shabab.
This uptick in US air strikes is linked to growing concerns about IS-Somalia’s regional and global connections, as well as al-Shabab’s recent worrying gains in Somalia. Analysts caution that the US needs to invest in long-term peacebuilding and governance support, rather than relying solely on military might.
“The current drone diplomacy would continue to help al-Shabab,” said Abukar Arman, a Somali analyst and former special envoy to the US. “These attacks kill civilians, destroy properties and livestock. Ensuing grievances are utilised by armed groups that take advantage of these sentiments.”
The US has a long history of military intervention in Somalia, dating back to the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, which killed 18 US troops and thousands of Somali civilians. Since then, the US has continued to conduct aerial bombardments in the country, with Trump’s first term seeing a staggering 219 strikes, according to New America.
“The US acknowledges harm to civilians and has allocated funds yet continues to avoid making these crucial payments,” said Eva Buzo, the executive director of Victims Advocacy International. “The US needs to genuinely communicate with impacted communities, to better understand the true consequences drone strikes have on their lives, and what can be done to acknowledge this impact tangibly.”
Experts warn that the Trump administration’s continued reliance on drone strikes will only empower armed groups like al-Shabab and IS-Somalia, which thrive on foreign aggression and Somali betrayal. “Drone strikes without accountability can actually create the conditions for the very insurgencies they’re meant to eliminate to thrive,” said Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies.
The situation in Somalia highlights the complexities of US military involvement in the region and the need for a more comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of instability and extremism. As the Trump administration continues its bombing campaign, analysts say it will likely only add fuel to the fire, empowering the same foes it claims to be fighting.