Nigeria’s pump price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could surge to ₦1,000 per litre in the coming days as crude oil prices climb in response to escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Global markets reeled over the weekend following coordinated airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities — an action that threatens global energy supply and raises inflationary pressure in oil-importing countries like Nigeria.
Brent crude, the global crude oil benchmark, has already inched past $77 per barrel and is poised to break the $80 threshold. Energy analysts say this will have a direct ripple effect on local petrol pricing, particularly as domestic refining operations at Dangote’s 650,000 barrels-per-day facility remain exposed to global crude rates and exchange volatility.
The catalyst was a preemptive military strike announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump targeting Iran’s strategic nuclear infrastructure. Iran, a leading OPEC producer, responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but critical waterway through which nearly 20% of global oil passes daily.
Although the closure has not been finalized, statements by Iranian officials have stoked panic in global energy markets. On Sunday, Nigerian grades like Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe traded at about $79 per barrel, exceeding the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75.
According to Ole Hvalbye of SEB and Jorge Leon of Rystad, markets could immediately price in a $3 to $5 premium on Brent, depending on further retaliatory moves. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen added that oil could open $4 to $5 higher on Monday, creating pressure for refiners and fuel importers alike.
Back home, the pump price of petrol is already climbing. Dangote Petroleum Refinery last week increased its ex-depot price from ₦825 to ₦880 per litre. In response, MRS, Rainoil, and other major marketers adjusted retail prices to between ₦925 and ₦955 depending on the region, with the South-East and North-West facing the highest costs.
In Lagos, filling stations sold at around ₦925 on Sunday, but this figure is expected to rise sharply should global crude prices breach $80. Industry trackers like PetroleumPrice.ng predict that prices could cross ₦1,000 per litre if Dangote and other key suppliers further adjust their rates.
Speaking with our correspondent, Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed that global crude oil volatility and exchange rate fluctuations are putting pressure on petrol costs. “We’ve already seen prices of ₦975 to ₦990 in parts of the North. In remote regions, ₦1,000 per litre is becoming a reality,” he said.
According to Ukadike, the cost of lifting 50,000 litres has risen significantly, forcing independent marketers to revise their pricing strategies. “Dangote buys crude at international rates, so even though we produce locally, the benefit doesn’t shield us from global shocks,” he added.
PetroleumPrice.ng CEO, Olatide Jeremiah, corroborated this, saying: “Private depots are monitoring the global oil trends. If Brent crude hits $80 per barrel, you can expect depot prices to jump and pump prices to follow immediately.”
Other depots including Sigmund, Matrix Warri, and NIPCO have already adjusted their rates between ₦895 and ₦930. Analysts say NNPC Limited is also expected to revise its pump price to reflect market realities.
While higher oil prices could offer a temporary boost to Nigeria’s dollar revenues, the inflationary effects could be devastating for consumers. Fuel remains a key driver of food and transport inflation in Nigeria. Any spike to ₦1,000 per litre could trigger further price increases across sectors and deepen economic hardship.
Despite efforts by the Federal Government to stabilize the naira and reduce the cost of fuel imports, the combined forces of geopolitical unrest and market speculation threaten to reverse modest gains made in recent months.
Observers now look to the Presidential Committee on Crude-for-Naira deals and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to intervene or propose cushioning mechanisms before retail fuel prices become unsustainable for everyday Nigerians.
With the Strait of Hormuz hanging in geopolitical balance and global crude oil benchmarks surging, Nigeria stands at the precipice of a fresh petrol price crisis. If tensions between Israel and Iran persist — and global supply lines are interrupted — the ₦1,000 per litre petrol era may arrive sooner than expected.