US President Donald Trump’s recent endgame statements on Iran have sparked confusion and concern among analysts, who say he appears to be contradictory in his approach. Trump has called for ending the war and hinted at peace coming “soon”, only to then suggest that assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be an option for the US, along with joining Israel’s bombing campaign.
The White House said Trump will make a decision on whether to join the war within two weeks. Analysts believe Trump may not have a clear strategy or endgame, and instead, is being dragged to war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said Trump could be attempting to build leverage with threats to strongarm Iran into accepting his demands of “total surrender”. “I think he’s trying to present himself as this madman who is unpredictable, and in so doing, he can then insist on this very hard line that Iran has refused to accept for decades of full dismantlement of its enrichment programme,” Abdi said.
Alternatively, Abdi added, Trump might be “being taken for a ride by Bibi Netanyahu to commit the United States to a full-on war with Iran”. Iranian American analyst Negar Mortazavi also believes Trump is being “outmaneuvered” by Netanyahu. “I don’t even know if President Trump knows what he wants,” Mortazavi said. “He campaigned as the president of peace… he promised he’s going to end conflicts. Russia-Ukraine hasn’t ended. Gaza has escalated, and he just let the third big Middle East war – which looks like a regime-change war – start under his watch. So, he says one thing. He does another.”
The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly, with Israel launching a bombing campaign against Iran’s air defences, military and nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, and residential buildings. Iran has responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles that have killed at least 24 Israelis and left widespread destruction across the country.
Israeli officials claim they are trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, but also note that their military campaign could lead to the collapse of the Iranian governing system. However, experts warn that escalating the conflict will have “catastrophic” consequences for the region.
“If the war escalates, Iran could also disrupt shipping lanes in the Gulf – a major lifeline for global energy,” Mortazavi said. Iranian lawmakers have already suggested that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows.
Analysts warn that even if Iran’s governing system is toppled under US and Israeli blows, the consequences would be severe. “This is not a colour revolution. This is going to be war and chaos, potentially civil war, and unrest,” Mortazavi said.
Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of the rights group DAWN, said that continued belligerence and hostile rhetoric from President Trump is only throwing fuel on the fire. “The possibilities of the assaults on Iran escalating into not just a broader regional war, but potentially a global war, are extremely high,” Whitson said.