As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, Pakistan is navigating a complex diplomatic situation, balancing its relations with Iran and concerns about its own security. The country has voiced staunch support for Tehran, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemning the Israeli strikes as “violations of Iran’s territorial sovereignty” and “blatant provocations”. Pakistan’s concerns are rooted in its complex ties with Iran and the potential fallout in the restive province of Balochistan, which shares a 905km border with Iran.
The Pakistani government has closed five border crossings in Balochistan, citing security concerns. According to Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, “There is a major concern within Pakistan that in case the war escalates, members of armed groups such as BLA and BLF, many of whom live in Iran’s border areas, might try and seek protection inside Pakistan by crossing the very porous boundaries shared by the two countries.” The province is home to several armed groups, including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), which have been waging a rebellion against the Pakistani government.
Despite these concerns, Pakistan is attempting to play a diplomatic role in the conflict. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ishaq Dar addressed Parliament, emphasizing Pakistan’s willingness to help broker an end to the military hostilities between Iran and Israel. “Iran’s foreign minister [Abbas Araghchi] told me that if Israel does not carry out another attack, they are prepared to return to the negotiating table,” Dar said.
However, Umer Karim, a Middle East researcher at the University of Birmingham, doubts Pakistan’s capacity to mediate in the conflict, saying, “I doubt Pakistan has the capacity or the will to mediate in this conflict, but it definitely wants it to wind down as soon as possible.”
Pakistan is also concerned about the potential for Israeli aerial superiority over Iranian airspace, which could have implications for its own security. According to Karim, “Pakistan is also averse to Israel achieving complete air superiority and control of Iranian airspace, as it would upend the current security status quo on Pakistan’s western flank.” This concern is driven by the country’s experience with Afghan refugees and its desire to avoid a similar influx of refugees from Iran.
Pakistan’s response to the conflict reflects a delicate balance between its relations with Iran and its own security concerns. As security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud noted, “Pakistan has already dealt with sectarian issues, and openly supporting military action against [Shia-majority] Iran could spark serious blowback.” With a significant Shia population and a history of sectarian tensions, Pakistan is likely to tread carefully in the conflict.