Israel’s launch of air attacks against Iran prompted Tehran to fire a wave of retaliatory strikes on Israel, with some Iranian ballistic missiles piercing through Israel’s missile defence systems and hitting key targets. The Israeli military official stated that its defence systems had an “80 or 90 percent success rate”, emphasising that no system has a perfect rate. This implies that some Iranian missiles had pierced the fortifications.
Iran’s military capabilities have evolved significantly over the years, presenting a complex landscape of strategic assets. Understanding Iran’s military capabilities is essential for appreciating its regional influence and defence posture. The Iranian Armed Forces encompass the Islamic Republic of Iran Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, each serving distinct roles in national defence strategies.
The Iranian missile program is fundamental to its military strategy, providing a deterrent capability against regional adversaries and enhancing its influence on a global scale. Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities are particularly noteworthy, with missiles like the Shahab-3 capable of striking locations in Israel and parts of Europe. The development of cruise missiles has further diversified its strike capabilities.
In recent conflicts, Iran has demonstrated its ability to breach Israel’s air defence systems using various techniques. According to Alex Gatopoulos, a defence editor, Iran has hypersonic missiles, which can evade air defence systems due to their speed and unpredictable trajectory. These missiles are difficult for air defence systems to intercept, even if detected by radar.
Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London, noted that another way Iran possibly evaded Israeli air defences is by exhausting Israel’s interceptor missiles. “No system shoots down 100 percent [missiles] anyway,” she said, adding, “You cannot shoot down more missiles if you only have a limited number of interceptors.”
Cruise missiles can also change their trajectory and become difficult to intercept. Iran has cruise missiles in its arsenal, such as the Hoveyzeh missile, which has been used against Israel. These missiles fly like pilotless planes, low and steady, sneaking past air defences.
Other ways air defence systems can be challenged include overloading their systems with decoys of drones and missiles. Miron explained that these decoys can empty the interceptor missile reserve, allowing actual missiles and drones to get through. Some missiles are also equipped with radar suppression technologies, making them undetectable for air defence systems.
The conflict between Iran and Israel raises questions about the potential depletion of missiles. Gatopoulos described the conflict as “attritional” at the moment, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the number of missiles Iran has to continue the conflict and the number of interceptors Israel has to keep firing.
Iran’s military strength ranks 16th out of 145 countries, with a Power Index score of 0.3048. The nation has a substantial military presence, with approximately 610,000 active-duty personnel and 350,000 reservists. Its military capabilities include advanced missile systems, drones, and cyber warfare.