Nigeria’s inflation rate has dropped to 22.97% in May 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signaling a 0.74 percentage point decline from the 23.71% recorded in April. However, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) has expressed strong reservations about the credibility of the figure, asserting that the prices of goods and services in the country remain largely unchanged.
In its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday, the NBS said the year-on-year inflation had declined by nearly 11 percentage points from 33.95% in May 2024, attributing the drop to a statistical rebasing and reduced pressure in price increases for some goods and services.
But speaking to reporters, the Chairman of the OPS, Dele Oye, cast doubt on the report, questioning the methodology used and challenging the government to provide tangible proof of the claimed price reduction.
“There’s no price coming down,” Oye stated bluntly. “Everything is still expensive—food, fuel, transportation. If the government claims inflation has dropped, they need to tell Nigerians which markets are enjoying these lower prices.”
He continued, “The purchasing power of the average Nigerian remains depressed. Petrol prices dropped briefly but have begun rising again due to global tensions. As far as businesses and consumers are concerned, the supposed relief in inflation is yet to reflect in their daily experiences.”
While the headline inflation showed a marginal ease, the report indicates that food prices remain a significant driver of inflation. Food inflation stood at 21.14% year-on-year in May 2025, a sharp drop from 40.66% recorded the same month in 2024. However, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 2.19% in May from 2.06% in April—indicating that food prices are still rising, just at a slower pace.
According to the NBS, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) dropped to 22.28% from 27.04% in May 2024, reflecting modest improvements in non-food goods. Nonetheless, the persistent surge in prices of staple foods like yam, cassava, maize flour, fresh pepper, and ogbono continues to bite into household budgets.
A breakdown of state-by-state inflation data reveals disparities in the inflation experience across Nigeria. Bayelsa, Bauchi, and Borno recorded the steepest monthly rises in headline inflation, while Kaduna, Jigawa, and Edo posted notable monthly declines.
In food inflation, Borno State led with 64.36% year-on-year increase, followed by Bayelsa (39.85%) and Taraba (38.58%). States like Katsina, Rivers, and Kwara recorded the slowest food inflation, suggesting localized economic dynamics at play.
The NBS attributed much of the reported decline to the recent CPI rebasing, which adjusted the base year used to measure inflation, thereby statistically flattening the rate. Economists and private sector leaders argue that while technical adjustments might explain the numbers on paper, they don’t translate to actual relief for citizens or enterprises.
The OPS is urging the Federal Government to improve transparency in economic data dissemination and focus on tangible interventions that reduce the cost of doing business in Nigeria. Oye emphasized the need for investment in infrastructure, stable power supply, and supportive trade policies to truly bring down the cost of goods and services.
> “Inflation rates don’t fall in a vacuum,” Oye added. “It takes deliberate action—reduced taxation, efficient logistics, subsidy reforms, and support for local producers. Without these, rebased statistics are just window dressing.”
As Nigerians continue to grapple with a high cost of living, skepticism toward official economic data risks widening the trust gap between the government and the populace. The OPS is expected to further engage with economic policymakers in the coming weeks to align strategies for inflation control, industrial growth, and sustainable economic reform.
For now, while the inflation figures offer a ray of hope on paper, the real test lies in making that relief felt in the markets, homes, and businesses of everyday Nigerians.