Israel’s unprecedented attacks on Iran‘s nuclear facilities have sparked intense debate about the effectiveness of the strikes in disrupting the country’s nuclear program. The Israeli military targeted three key nuclear facilities: Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, as well as top scientists involved in nuclear research and development.
According to Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, “The whole (nuclear) supply chain has been disrupted.” Vaez emphasized that each targeted site plays a crucial role in the complex sequence of steps required to create a nuclear weapon. “This chain is now broken, but it could be put back together in a matter of months, because Iran has both the knowhow and the material that is required for it,” he cautioned. “This is not a problem that will go away simply with aerial strikes.”
Natanz Nuclear Facility
Initial assessments indicate that Israel’s strikes on Natanz were extremely effective, destroying the above-ground part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and knocking out electricity on the lower levels where centrifuges are stored. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that electrical infrastructure, including the main power supply building and emergency generators, was destroyed. According to Vaez, “These are machines that spin at the speed of light, and if they are suddenly turned off, some of them might explode or suffer unrecoverable damage.”
Isfahan Nuclear Site
The extent of damage at Isfahan was more difficult to determine, with conflicting claims emerging from Israel and Iran. However, the IAEA reported that four critical buildings at the site were damaged. An IDF official claimed Israel had “concrete intelligence” that Iran was “moving forward to a nuclear bomb” at the Isfahan facility.
Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant
The Fordow facility, buried deep in the mountains near Qom, was targeted by Israel but appears to have suffered minimal damage. Vaez noted that “The expectation has always been that Israel would not be able to reach (Fordow), because it would need the kind of bunker-buster, massive ordinance bombs that only the United States has.”
James M. Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, observed that “If Fordow remains operational, Israel’s attacks may barely slow Iran’s path to the bomb.” Acton added that destroying much of the Fordow site would be a challenging task for Israel.
In conclusion, while Israel’s strikes have undoubtedly caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, the long-term impact on Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain. As Vaez aptly put it, “This is not a problem that will go away simply with aerial strikes”.