The world is on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, with nine nuclear-armed states upgrading their arsenals and delivery systems, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) Yearbook. Despite the gradual dismantling of 1,000 retired warheads by the US and Russia, new warheads are entering stockpiles, and improvements in potency, delivery, and accuracy are bringing about a new nuclear era.
SIPRI director Dan Smith emphasized that the world is experiencing a step change in nuclear capabilities, driven by the upgrading of arsenals across the board. “It’s not just little bits and pieces here and there. It’s everybody moving in that direction of upgrading, including the new nuclear weapon state of North Korea and the relatively new ones of Pakistan and India, who went nuclear in the 90s,” he said.
China is building 350 new launch silos and has assembled 100 new warheads in the past year, reaching a total of 600. India and China may be deploying warheads on missiles during peacetime, changing their longstanding policy of keeping warheads and missiles unmated. North Korea is estimated to have refined enough fissile material to build 40 additional bombs, while Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is likely to continue expanding over the next decade.
The UK is raising its stockpile from 225 warheads to 260 and building new nuclear-capable submarines. France is also building a third-generation submarine and designing an air-launched cruise missile, both nuclear-capable. Israel is thought to be able to launch nuclear missiles from its existing submarines, with its latest submarine, the Drakon, believed to have a vertical launch system.
The SIPRI Yearbook highlights the intensifying conventional armed conflict worldwide, with the estimated number of fatalities rising from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. World military spending has increased by 37% in the past decade and 9.4% last year alone, reaching $2.7 trillion. Minna Alander, a fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security programme at CEPA, noted that the situation has triggered a nuclear debate even in unlikely parts of Europe.
The US security guarantee has been weakened by President Donald Trump’s conditionality on NATO’s mutual defence clause, making it uncertain what the response would be in case of an attack. This development vindicates France’s choice of complete autonomy in its nuclear deterrent. Smith emphasized that introducing conditions on the deterrent undermines its credibility.
Despite the challenges, efforts to curtail nuclear proliferation continue. SIPRI’s Smith emphasized that nobody can win a nuclear war, saying, “Eighty years into the nuclear era, it still makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to launch a nuclear war under any circumstances.” He added that Israel’s potential use of nuclear weapons would achieve nothing but revenge at best. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been ratified by 178 countries, while 73 countries have ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), aiming to ban all nuclear weapons.