Beyond Israel’s stated goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider aim – regime change in Tehran. The Israeli prime minister hopes that the unprecedented strikes will start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic. In a statement on Friday evening, Netanyahu said, “The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.”
The strikes have killed high-ranking officials, including the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the chief of staff of the armed forces. Iran retaliated with attacks against “dozens of targets, military centres and airbases” in Israel. After Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks, Netanyahu warned, “More is on the way.” Israel’s leaders may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising.
However, this is a gamble, and there is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start. Even if it does, it’s unclear where the process might lead. Those with the most power in Iran, the hardliners in the IRGC and other unelected bodies, are already in control and could take Iran in a more confrontational direction.
Another possible outcome could be regime collapse followed by Iran’s descent into chaos. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle East. Israel’s desired outcome seems to be an uprising that ends with a friendly force taking over, but a major question is who might be the alternative?
Iranian opposition forces are highly fragmented, and there are no clear options. Some potential alternatives could be groups like the Iranian former crown prince Reza Pahlavi or the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled opposition group that backs the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. However, it’s unclear whether these groups could quickly transform into a force for regime change.
Despite targeting several targets in Israel, Iran doesn’t seem to have many good options. Some might see the safest way out as continuing to engage in negotiations with the US and aiming to de-escalate from there. However, returning to negotiations, as Trump has demanded, is a tough choice for Iran’s leaders because that would mean they have accepted defeat.
Iran’s other option is to carry on with retaliatory attacks against Israel, but this could invite further attacks by Israel. Tehran has threatened to target US bases, embassies, and points of interest in the region, but this is not easily achieved and would bring the US directly into the conflict, which is what Iran least wants. None of these options are easy for either side, and their consequences are hard to predict.