Nigeria has recorded a major breakthrough in its energy sector, with the country’s petrol import bill dropping by over N2 trillion in the first quarter of 2025. The sharp decline, from N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024 to N1.76 trillion in Q1 2025, represents a 54% year-on-year reduction, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This significant drop is largely attributed to the ramped-up operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has gradually begun displacing foreign suppliers and boosting domestic fuel sufficiency. The $20 billion refinery, with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is now operating at approximately 85% capacity, helping to reduce Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on imported refined petroleum.
The NBS trade report also revealed a 47% drop in petrol import value compared to Q4 2024, when the figure stood at N3.3 trillion. Analysts say this marks a structural shift in Nigeria’s petroleum trade dynamics, reversing years of heavy dependence on foreign petrol products.
Petrol had consistently been one of Nigeria’s most imported commodities over the past five years. From N732 billion in Q1 2020, imports steadily rose to a peak of N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024. The current reversal suggests that local refining is not only gaining ground but also beginning to impact national trade and foreign exchange outflows significantly.
Despite the progress, Nigeria is not yet fully self-sufficient in refined petrol. The report shows that petrol was still the most imported commodity from ECOWAS countries in Q1 2025, with imports valued at N89.18 billion—representing 44.51% of all imports from the region. It also accounted for 11.63% of Nigeria’s imports from the entire African continent.
Other notable fuel imports included gas oil (N23.15 billion) and petroleum bitumen (N20.58 billion), reflecting ongoing regional dependence even as domestic supply improves.
Retail petrol prices have also responded to increased local supply. In Lagos, fuel prices dropped to as low as N860 per litre in early 2025. However, challenges remain. In March, Dangote Refinery temporarily halted naira-based transactions due to forex sourcing difficulties, as it purchases crude in US dollars but was receiving payments in naira. The Federal Government intervened, resolving the issue and ensuring continuity in the refinery’s operations.
Speaking recently, Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, disclosed that a major transformation in Nigeria’s downstream sector was underway. Following a visit from President Bola Tinubu to the refinery site in Lekki, Lagos, Dangote teased an upcoming “massive trajectory” in refinery operations.
“We are going on a massive trajectory, much more than what you have seen here,” Dangote said. “If you come back in the next five years, the refinery will be on the back burner. We remain committed to Nigeria’s economic transformation and to ending fuel scarcity for good.”
He also hinted at the upcoming listing of the refinery and associated businesses on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, starting with the Dangote Fertilizer Company later this year. This move, he noted, would further deepen investor participation and transparency in the downstream sector.
The federal government has lauded the development, considering it a step forward in achieving energy independence and economic resilience. With the reduction in petrol imports, the country saves not just on foreign exchange but also strengthens its trade balance and reduces vulnerability to global oil price volatility.
Experts believe the transition to local refining could also create thousands of jobs, enhance energy security, and enable better regulation of fuel pricing.
As Nigeria edges closer to full-scale refining independence, the Dangote Refinery is proving to be a game-changer, setting the stage for a self-reliant, competitive energy future.