Nigeria’s ambitions to hit a daily oil production benchmark of 2 million barrels have taken another blow as fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows a decline in crude output in May 2025. The figures indicate a fall from 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April to 1.65mbpd in May, sparking renewed concerns over the country’s ability to meet its oil production targets amid growing fiscal and energy sector challenges.
A closer look reveals that actual crude oil production dipped from 1.48mbpd in April to 1.45mbpd last month. This slight but worrying drop effectively erases the modest progress made earlier in the year, when production had risen from 1.40mbpd in March, briefly kindling hope that Nigeria could eventually reach its 2.1mbpd goal.
According to NUPRC data, the lowest and highest combined crude oil and condensate production in May stood at 1.61 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 1.81 million bopd respectively. The average for the month was 1,657,435 bopd — with 1,452,941 from crude and 204,493 from condensate. This places Nigeria’s compliance at 97% of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5mbpd.
This latest setback casts a long shadow over the plans unveiled by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu when he inaugurated a new board for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in early 2025. The board, led by Chairman Ahmadu Kida and GCEO Bayo Ojulari, was tasked with increasing daily production to 2mbpd by 2027 and 3mbpd by 2030, alongside ambitious goals for natural gas and refining capacity.
During the board’s inauguration, Ojulari expressed optimism, citing early meetings with industry stakeholders and a renewed focus on refinery turnaround maintenance. “We will promise what we can deliver, and we will deliver on our promise,” he said, noting that production had briefly touched 1.7mbpd and was projected to hit 1.9mbpd by the end of 2025.
However, these targets appear increasingly optimistic in the face of repeated production inconsistencies and structural bottlenecks. Despite initial gains in January when production peaked at 1.74mbpd, subsequent months have seen recurring slumps, particularly in February and now in May.
Analysts attribute the ongoing production instability to several factors: persistent oil theft and pipeline vandalism, underinvestment in upstream operations, regulatory uncertainty, and operational delays in fully revamping the nation’s moribund refineries. The delay in concluding divestment deals between international oil companies (IOCs) and indigenous firms has also limited the sector’s capacity for recovery.
While Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, maintains that Nigeria has the potential to produce up to 3mbpd, achieving that target remains elusive without bold structural reforms and enhanced operational discipline.
Energy analyst, Sola Adigun, warns that “if the government continues to rely on policy statements without concrete actions, especially in boosting security around oil infrastructure and expediting licensing agreements, Nigeria’s oil future may stagnate.”
With oil still accounting for a significant portion of Nigeria’s export earnings and foreign reserves, the economic implications of this production volatility are profound. The inability to meet OPEC quotas consistently has not only limited revenue but has also affected Nigeria’s bargaining position within the global oil bloc.
Going forward, industry stakeholders suggest that beyond infrastructure upgrades, what Nigeria urgently needs is investor confidence, better transparency in oil metering systems, and timely implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
As oil prices fluctuate globally and energy transition gains pace, Nigeria’s upstream sector stands at a crossroads. The months ahead will be crucial in determining whether the country can regain momentum and meet its production ambitions or continue to lag behind its OPEC peers.