Nigeria’s appetite for imported goods has waned in early 2025, as official data shows a 7% decline in import value in the first quarter of the year, signaling tighter consumer demand and persistent macroeconomic pressures on trade.
According to the latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the total value of imports in Q1 2025 stood at ₦15.43 trillion, down from ₦16.59 trillion recorded in the last quarter of 2024. This represents a 4.59% quarter-on-quarter drop, but a modest 4.59% year-on-year increase when compared with Q1 2024.
However, economists argue that the year-on-year increase does not reflect real growth, as it is outpaced by Nigeria’s inflation rate, currently above 20%, thereby eroding the purchasing power of both consumers and businesses. In real terms, imports have contracted significantly, indicating a decrease in actual foreign goods entering Nigerian markets.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has attributed this trend to the steady decline in local manufacturing activity and consumer demand. The Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, highlighted that manufacturing capacity utilisation fell from 73.3% in 1981 to 57% in 2024, while the sector’s contribution to GDP declined from 29.9% to 8.6% over the same period.
According to MAN, unsold inventory surged by 87.5% to ₦2.14 trillion in 2024 due to low purchasing power, high inflation, and rising production costs. “Manufacturers are struggling with excess stock. When people cannot afford to buy, demand shrinks, which naturally leads to reduced imports,” Ajayi-Kadir stated.
Despite the decline in imports, Nigeria maintained a positive trade balance in Q1 2025, with a surplus of ₦5.17 trillion. However, this marks a significant 20.1% drop from the ₦6.52 trillion recorded in the same period last year.
Total trade in goods rose slightly to ₦36.02 trillion, reflecting a 6.19% increase compared to Q1 2024. However, this figure is 1.58% lower than the total trade recorded in Q4 2024, which stood at ₦36.6 trillion.
Exports accounted for ₦20.6 trillion, or 57.18% of total trade, showing a 7.42% increase compared to ₦19.18 trillion in Q1 2024. Crude oil remains the dominant export, contributing ₦12.95 trillion or 62.89% of total exports. Non-crude exports stood at ₦7.64 trillion, with non-oil products accounting for only ₦3.16 trillion.
Ajayi-Kadir further lamented the drop in non-oil export contributions, which fell from 82.37% in 2019 to 25.13% in 2024, underscoring Nigeria’s continued dependence on oil for foreign exchange earnings.
Another factor impacting the drop in official imports is the rise in smuggled goods across Nigeria’s land and sea borders. MAN reports that smuggled items—often substandard or used products—are capturing a significant share of local markets, undercutting locally produced goods and official imports. This is costing manufacturers and the government billions in lost revenue annually.
“The market is flooded with cheap, inferior goods that make it hard for Nigerian-made products to compete,” MAN said in its analysis. “This discourages local production and also reflects in reduced formal import figures.”
On the global trading front, China remains Nigeria’s top import partner, followed by India, the United States, the Netherlands, and the United Arab Emirates. Key commodities imported during the quarter include Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), Motor spirit (PMS), crude petroleum oils, cane sugar, and durum wheat.
In terms of exports to Africa, the top five products included petroleum oils, light fuel oils, electrical energy, and urea, accounting for 90.21% of total African exports.
The decline in imports may suggest improving trade balance on the surface, but analysts warn it could signal deeper structural weaknesses in the Nigerian economy. With declining industrial productivity, falling non-oil exports, and weak consumer demand, the country risks prolonged stagnation unless robust policies are enacted to stimulate local manufacturing, boost exports, and curb smuggling.
Experts have called on the federal government to accelerate reforms in the foreign exchange market, improve port efficiency, and offer incentives to revive the real sector. Without these measures, the marginal trade surplus may not translate into broader economic growth or improved living standards for Nigerians.