The Kenyan government is set to present its budget to parliament, carefully crafted to avoid a repeat of last year’s massive protests over tax hikes. The East African nation, a regional economic powerhouse, has been grappling with soaring living costs and a stagnant job market.
Last year’s finance bill, which raised taxes on everyday items, sparked widespread anger, culminating in thousands storming parliament and forcing President William Ruto to cancel the bill. At least 60 people were killed in the protests, and rights groups say dozens more were illegally detained by security forces in the aftermath.
This year’s budget focuses on businesses, seeking to reduce government spending and close tax loopholes to increase revenues. The government faces a daunting task in boosting social services and investment amidst huge debts, with interest payments already exceeding its spending on health and education.
Analysts say the new budget is unlikely to provoke the same level of public anger as last year, but critics argue it still includes backdoor price increases and will hurt small businesses.
“This year’s finance bill is, in comparison to last year’s, very much seeking to avoid controversy,” said Patricia Rodrigues of Control Risks. However, she noted that it will be “difficult for a lot of businesses to swallow because it includes potential increases on income taxes and social contributions, and the end of some tax holidays for corporates and medium and small enterprises.”
The World Bank has reduced its growth projections for Kenya from 5.0 to 4.5 percent in 2025. Kenya is currently seeking a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, meaning its funding will not be included in the budget.
A bigger concern for many Kenyans has been the government’s rights record. The arrest of a young software developer for building a website opposing the new bill and the death of a man in police custody after criticizing a senior officer have sparked widespread anger.
“Just because the tax issue is no longer at the forefront of people’s minds does not mean that protests or unrest will not be mobilised,” Rodrigues said, adding that the administration’s track record on human rights and corruption has been causing people to mobilize more.